Macroeconomics Report – October 2022: THE ECONOMY WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND AT A SLOW PACE
- Economic growth in 3Q22 was extremely high thanks to low base effects, Consumption and exports are the main drivers of growth in 9M22.
- The expansion rate of the economy in 3Q22 was generally significantly weaker than the GDP trend before the COVID-19 pandemic occurred.
- We forecast Q4 GDP growth at around 6.3-6.7%, full-year GDP growth in 2022 therefore estimated at 8.1-8.2%, higher than our previous forecast of 7.3%.
- In the case of oil prices in the 4Q22 in the range of $90-100/barrel, the headline inflation is estimated at 3.6-3.8% for 2022, lower than the Government's target of 4%.
- Although the impact of public investment on the economy is pervasive, there is always a delay, public investment is expected to be the pillar of economic growth next year.
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