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MAR 2026 MONTHLY MARKET MONITOR: RIDING THE FIRE HORSE

As of 27 February 2026, the VN-Index had risen by 2.8% MoM, but this rally was characterised as 'moving higher in the absence of strong inflows'. Early in the month, the market corrected as interbank rates surged (overnight by around 17%), then recovered and remained positive throughout the second half of the month. Liquidity fell by around 20% MoM due to post-Tet seasonality, with the majority concentrated in large-cap stocks. The average trading value on the VN-Index was VND 25,712 billion per session. The liquidity decline was mainly due to VN30 (VND 15,121 billion per session vs. VND 18,882 billion per session the previous month), while VNSmall remained almost unchanged.
Sector rotation diverged sharply and was the key determinant of index direction. The leading sectors were Energy (+22.4%), Insurance (+13.6%), Real Estate (+12.6%) and Financial Services (+7.7%), while the lagging sectors were Software/IT (-10.7%), Consumer Services (-9.6%), Food & Beverage and Tobacco (-6.6%), Utilities (-5.6%), Healthcare (-5.0%) and Banks (-2.9%). Real Estate was the largest 'engine' with point contributions of +3.4 pp, followed by Energy with +0.7 pp and Financial Services with +0.6 pp. In contrast, Banks were the main drag with -1.2 pp, making the index's gain less broad-based.
In terms of money flow, domestic investors continued to provide support, but their trading behaviour leaned towards rotation and selective opportunity-seeking rather than aggressive net buying. Among notable stocks, retail investors made strong purchases of names such as FPT and VCB, while also making significant sales of HPG, MBB,...indicating short-term rebalancing amid declining liquidity.
Foreign investors remained a headwind as they continued to sell net, focusing on large-cap/sector-leading stocks such as FPT, VCB, VNM, VIC and ACB. Buying was more dispersed and focused on a few stocks, such as HPG, MBB and BSR. A strong USD and uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy kept risk appetite towards emerging markets unstable, thereby continuing to impact foreign capital flows negatively.
Notable domestic events during the period included the PMI remaining in expansion territory at 52.5; the Ministry of Finance issuing Circular 08/2026/TT-BTC related to conditions/access for foreign investors, thereby reinforcing Vietnam’s likelihood of being officially upgraded in market classification this year; an interbank rate shock triggered by the early month; and, towards the end of the month, the SBV emphasising close monitoring of real-estate credit. Globally, the BoE held rates, and news around OPEC+ and U.S. tariff risks increased volatility in inflation, rates and commodities expectations. Escalating U.S.–Iran tensions clearly raised investors’ risk premium.