MSB – PBT in 2025 is projected to fall short of the full-year target
• Cumulative consolidated PBT for 9M2025 of MSB reached VND 4.8 trillion (-3% YoY), completing 60% of the full-year target (VND 8 trillion). 9M2025 operating results showed several positive highlights driven by (1) solid retail credit growth (+22% YTD) amid generally sluggish recovery across the industry, (2) a sharp increase in the CASA ratio by 140 bps YTD to 27.8%, helping optimize funding costs and expand NIM, and (3) a marked improvement in asset quality.• We forecast MSB’s consolidated PBT in 2025F to reach nearly VND 6.6 trillion, down 6% YoY. Net interest income growth of 12% YoY (consolidated credit growth of 17.7% YTD, consolidated NIM of 3.5%) contributes to a 3% YoY increase in total operating income, while non-interest income is projected to decline sharply by 19% YoY, mainly due to the absence of one-off gains from the recovery of written-off NPLs (liquidation of collateralized marine vessels) in 2025. Operating expenses and provision expenses in 2025F are expected to increase by 12% and 8% YoY, respectively.
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