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NT2 - Performance skyrocketed despite a decrease in output

Q2/2025: Gross profit margin increases sharply thanks to high QC output
NT2 recorded revenue of VND 2,081 billion (-5% YoY) and profit after tax – minority interest (NPAT-MI) reached VND 326 billion, up 167% YoY), the Company has completed 25%/117% of the business plan in 2025.
• The plant's dispatched output (Qm) reached 776 million kWh (-31% YoY) as demand for gas-fired power in the whole system decreased by 21% YoY.
• Contracted output (Qc) reached 956 million kWh (+21% YoY), Qc output was higher than Qm output, helping the Company record revenue from contract for difference (CfD).
• Thanks to high Qc production and stable gas fuel prices (+0.5% YoY), the Company's gross profit margin increased sharply, reaching 18% (+11.7 pps).
Q3/2025 outlook: Expectations for improved output
Entering Q3/2025, hydropower mobilization may decrease compare to Q3/2024, creating room for mobilization for gas-fired power. In July, NT2's Qm output was 306 million kWh (+86% YoY) with total output in the quarter expected to reach 793 million kWh (+24% YoY).
Revenue in the quarter is estimated to increase by 14% YoY, to VND 1,956 billion, NPAT-MI may reach VND 208 billion (+371% YoY). The Company's gross profit margin was estimated at 12.1% (+8.6 pps YoY), further supported by higher Qc output than dispatched output, helping the Company record revenue differential under CfD contracts.
For the whole year of 2025, total electricity generation is estimated at 3,245 million kWh, up 19% YoY. Gross profit margin is estimated to increase by 10 pps YoY, to 10.9% thanks to (1) an increase in allocated Qc compared to the low in 2024 and (2) plant depreciation expenses starting to decrease from Q4/2025. Accordingly, revenue and NPAT-MI are estimated at VND 7,918 billion (+33% YoY) and VND 626 billion (673% YoY), respectively. EPS in 2025 could reach VND 2,174 (+654% YoY).
Outlook and recommendation
After a challenging 2024, we expect 2025 to be the year of recovery for NT2 thanks to (1) mobilized output increased by 11% YoY, mainly contributed from the recovery of 1Q/2025; (2) Profit margin expands when (a) the ratio of Qc to total power generation of gas-fired power plants improves from the low level of 2024 and (b) plant depreciation costs begin to decrease from Q4/2025.
In the long term, we believe that gas-fired plants using domestic gas sources are unlikely to be dispatched at a high level due to the ongoing decrease in fuel supply. NT2 can solve the difficulty of fuel supply shortage by switching to using imported LNG fuel. However, the Company's Board of Directors has not yet made a plan to convert fuel sources due to the lack of a specific framework for gas purchase prices and regasification and warehousing costs. Therefore, this is still an issue that needs to be monitored by investors.
Using a combination of FCFF and EV/EBITDA methods with a ratio of 80:20, , we recommend ACCUMULATE NT2 stock at a target price of 24,200 VND/share. Combined with the expected 12-month cash dividend of 1,000 VND/share, the total expected return of the stock is 13% compared to the closing price on September 5rd, 2025.