PVC Resin Price Outlook 2026 – No Longer at Low Levels Due to China’s New Policy
• In 2026, China will officially tighten its export support policy by abolishing the 13% VAT rebate on PVC resin (effective from April 2026). This move comes as the country’s plastics industry faces significant oversupply pressure (a surplus of more than 364 thousand tons in 2025) and persistently negative profit margins at factories. Cutting subsidies is seen as a step to mitigate the risk of retaliatory tariffs and to weed out inefficient domestic producers.• We expect regional PVC prices to establish a new base around USD 700/ton (+10% YoY) from Q2/2026, as producers pass on the increased tax cost (approximately USD 75/ton) into selling prices. Despite higher input costs, profit margins of large plastic pipe companies (BMP, NTP) are still expected to expand by 1–2%, thanks to expectations of increased inventories of low-priced goods in Q1—when Chinese factories ramp up exports ahead of the new regulation’s effective date.
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