PVT - Contribution of new vessels as growth driver in 2025
Using a combination of the P/E and P/B comparative methods, we determine the fair price of PVT shares for the next 12 months to be VND 31,500 per share, corresponding to projected P/E and P/B ratios for 2025 of 10.0 and 1.4, respectively. Combined with a cash dividend of VND 1,000 per share, the total expected return is 24%.Strengthening and renewing the fleet to expand market operations
In 2024, PVT invested in an additional 8 vessels, increasing its fleet to 58 ships, comprising 49 directly owned vessels and 9 bareboat chartered vessels, resulting in a 23% YoY increase in fleet size to 1.6 million DWT. With a strategy to expand operations and a 10-15% lower cost advantage in operational management compared to foreign companies, PVT has been able to expand into high-demand markets such as Europe and North America, rather than focusing solely on the Asia and the Middle East regions. Currently, over 85% of PVT's fleet operates on international shipping routes.
Liquidation of aging vessels providing additional cash flow for new investments
Our observations indicate that PVT primarily invests in transport vessels with an average age of 8 to 15 years and liquidates older vessels that have been in operation for 20 to 35 years. Currently, PVT has 2 LPG transport vessels over 30 years old and 1 chemical transport vessel over 20 years old. These vessels are likely to be unsuitable for domestic and international transport, so we believe the company will soon liquidate them to reinvest in a younger fleet in the coming years. In 2024, PVT liquidated 1 vessel, Synergy, contributing VND 146 billion to net profit for the year.
Contribution of new vessels to drive growth in 2025
In 2025, we forecast that freight rates for oil and gas transportation will remain high for crude oil and decrease slightly for product oil. PVT's revenue from oil and gas transportation is expected to grow positively due to (1) An estimated increase of over 20% in the volume of crude oil and chemical transported by BSR after maintenance, and (2) The revenue contribution from new vessels will offset the decline in freight rates for product oil. Estimated revenue growth for various business segments is projected as follows: product oil/chemical transport (+23% YoY), LPG transport (+13% YoY), bulk transport (+62% YoY), and crude oil transport (+22% YoY). Excluding profits from vessel sales in 2024, net profit attributable to shareholders is estimated to increase by 23% YoY.
Risks
Freight rates for maritime transport may decrease due to increased vessel supply.
Easing geopolitical tensions could shorten transportation routes for oil and gas
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