Real Estate Market – Supply-demand asymmetry and increased interest rate pressure will bring difficulties to suburban projects and resort tourism in 2023
- The demand for housing in Hanoi & Ho Chi Minh City is currently excessive and it is forecasted that the demand will continue to increase in the coming years measured by the following factors: (1) the annual population growth rate, (2) the increasing scarce land fund and (3) the infrastructure connecting Ha Noi and HCM with suburban areas has not yet been synchronously On this basis, we appreciate the short, medium, and long-term prospects of enterprises owning large land funds in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh. In which some listed companies such as VHM, KDH, HDG.
- However, in the favorable context, credit growth is expanded and interest rates remain low in the period 2018-2021 and investment demand increases significantly during the COVID-19, project development activities in the suburbs of Hanoi & Ho Chi Minh and other areas with potential for tourism development recorded an explode, in terms of demand, these projects have not focused on the segment of customers who have an actual desire to buy houses for
- Following many difficulties in 2022, we believe that the monetary policy in 2023 will still be quite challenging for real estate development activities for investment/speculation. On the other hand, we believe that housing projects concentrated in areas with high population density and meeting real demand will still have good liquidity. However, the number of these projects is not many and not many businesses in our analysis portfolio have this supply available. Therefore, we expect investors to have more better sales policies (including discounts on sale prices) in projects are about to be opened for sale to stimulate demand.
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