RESILIENT GROWTH
Vietnam's economic growth in Q3/2024 reached 7.4%, higher than the adjusted growth rate of 7.1% in the previous quarter. In addition to the driving force of exports and industrial production, private consumption and investment are also gradually improving.In 9M2024, Vietnam's GDP growth reached 6.8%, and was in line with the positive scenario we mentioned in the July 2024 macroeconomic outlook report. Accordingly, GDP growth for 2024 could reach 7.0%, higher than the forecast in Rong Viet's base scenario of 6.5%. I
Industrial production and consumption growth have narrowed slightly in recent months. Economic growth in Q4 may only improve slightly to 7.6% compared to the increase of 7.4% in Q3/2024.
In 9M2024, FDI attraction reached $24.8 billion, up 11.6% over the same period. FDI attraction in the processing and manufacturing industry mostly stayed the same compared to the same period. Accordingly, the overall growth rate is mainly due to the recovery in FDI attraction in the real estate sector.
However, we highly appreciate the speed of FDI disbursement. In 9M2024, realized FDI capital reached $17.3 billion, up 8.9% over the same period and significantly higher than the 3.5% increase in 2023. Positive FDI disbursement comes from capital injection of manufacturing projects, creating a premise for export growth in the coming year.
We are optimistic about the export outlook next year thanks to Vietnam's position in attracting foreign investment in the trend of shifting global supply chains. However, the outcome of the November US election may influence short-term business and investment confidence.
The SBV's monetary policy in Q3/2024 is relatively favorable due to reduced exchange rate pressure. Thanks to expectations of a Fed rate cut, the SBV has room to lower interest rates in the open market and support system liquidity.
The VND depreciated again in early October 2024. However, the recovery of the USD is still uncertain when considering policy and expectations that the Fed will continue to maintain the interest rate cut roadmap. The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike may only be a matter of time. Therefore, exchange rate fluctuations in the coming time are not a cause for concern
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