Retail Sector 2025 - MAINTAINING GROWTH MOMENTUM
In 2024, the overall purchasing power of the retail sector experienced sluggish growth due to indirect difficulties stemming from the frozen real estate sector and the slow recovery of investment, production, and exports. Most Vietnamese consumers could only afford to spend on basic necessities (groceries, pharmaceuticals), while discretionary spending on items such as cars and electronics was significantly reduced, resulting in uneven growth across sub-sectors.We anticipate that the macroeconomic factors mentioned above will be more positive in 2025 than they were in 2024, resulting in a gradual improvement in the overall retail sector outlook quarterly. Furthermore, we emphasize the importance of new industry trends such as the shift in consumer habits from traditional to modern channels (MT channels, e-commerce), focusing on value-for-money products, which will continue to drive differentiated growth among businesses in 2025: positive trends (MWG with Bach Hoa Xanh, FRT with Long Chau, HAX with MG cars), negative trends (MWG with The Gioi Di Dong, Dien May Xanh, FRT with FPT Shop, HAX with Mercedes-Benz).
Within the context of 2025 outlined above, retail businesses also show diversification in their business strategies, but generally, they all aim to secure absolute profits, regardless of whether their business model is in a saturated or growth phase. However, the strong growth of the stocks in our research list in 2024 has fully reflected the companies' medium-term prospects, specifically: DGW (MONITOR, TP: N.R.), MWG (NEUTRAL, TP: 63,700 VND/share), FRT (MONITOR, TP: N.R.), PNJ (NEUTRAL, TP: 96,300 VND/share), HAX (NEUTRAL, TP: 16,100 VND/share).
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