Seafood Industry – Long-Term Export Prospects for Pangasius and the Shrimp Sector in the US Market
• According to the July 2024 report by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) on the 10-year outlook for 2023-2033, the global average per capita seafood consumption for 2021-2023 was 20.85 kg/person/year. Among regions, Asia had the highest seafood consumption and is expected to see the highest growth by 2033.• Although the growth in per capita consumption is slowing, we note that pangasius is gradually gaining market share from tilapia, and since pangasius is a farmed product, it will increasingly replace wild-caught seafood. Therefore, we expect pangasius export market share to gradually increase across markets. We estimate that the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for total export volume in the US/EU/China markets for 2023-2028 will be 10%/2.2%/9.3%, respectively. Regarding fish prices, we expect the CAGR for pangasius prices during the stabilization period to match inflation growth, approximately 2%.
• The shrimp industry in the US continues to face fierce competition; however, Vietnam has gained market share from Ecuador, thanks to the growth in breaded shrimp and frozen headless shrimp. This is due to Vietnam significantly lowering the price of headless shrimp while maintaining the lowest prices for breaded shrimp compared to other countries. In the long term, value-added shrimp producers like FMC are expected to remain competitive in the US market.
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