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SEP 2025 MONTHLY MARKET MONITOR : THE BASIC IS SOLID, RERATING FURTHER NEED MORE TIME

In September 2025, we expect market liquidity to continue to be favorable, driven by positive investor sentiment towards key drivers. First, the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is expected to reduce exchange rate pressure. Secondly, the FTSE is likely to announce that Vietnam is eligible for an upgrade in this review period, as signals from recent discussions show positive prospects.
Regarding index levels, significant upside potential is no longer extensive, as valuations are now approaching the projected area for the second half of the year based on the 2025 growth outlook. In the short term, it is unlikely that the market P/E will rise above the 10-year average. However, with high liquidity, the market may experience a rotation of cash flow among sectors and within stocks of the same sector, after the divergence period of August.
However, investors need to be cautious about some risks that can impact trading sentiment. Specifically, (1) the Russian-Ukrainian peace negotiation process is at risk of returning to an uncertain state after the expected timeline from the Russia-US meeting in Alaska; (2) long-term government bond yields in G7 countries and gold prices continue to escalate, reflecting concerns about public debt and budget deficits, which, if prolonged, may increase the expected cost of capital and limit the room for central banks to run their policies.
In the short term, we prioritize maintaining a moderate buying power ratio, combine with portfolio diversification, and looking for investment opportunities based on valuations and fundamental outlooks. Stocks with a solid fundamentals (banking, real estate, etc.) or the small and medium-cap group with attractive valuations will be accumulation opportunities.
Accordingly, we add BID, FRT, HSG, PHR, CTI, and VHC to replace VPB, MBB, SAB, and QNS in our portfolio.
Regarding outstanding investment ideas, we introduce the construction stone industry with VLB, NNC, DHA, CTI. These enterprises are expected to have positive business results in the period 2025–2030, due to the sharp increase in demand for stone in the Southern region during the accelerated progress of key public investment projects. In particular, CTI also presents a story of the financial structure, creating value for shareholders from receiving money for the liquidation of the BOT 91 project according to Law No. 90/2025/QH15 – a new regulation on compensation for early termination of BOT contracts.