Special Report - Fiscal Room and Public Investment Disbursement
Momentum for economic growth in the upcoming decade is currently the important question for both fiscal and monetary policies.
Vietnam’s infrastructure investment plans for the next few years will be something to watch as the public debt/ GDP has decreased because the current fiscal reform creates a tight control of public finance in 2016-2020. Compared to other regional economies, Vietnam still has a healthy balance sheet. Most ratios such as public debt, government debt and national foreign debt remain under control.
This year (2019), so far, there is likely a fiscal surplus for the first time since 21st century as the amount was at VND 80 trillion in 1H2019. Although it will be hard for this to stay at these levels, we believe that this can contribute to soften the macroeconomic situation given the global headwinds.
Going back to infrastructure, the government pushed forward lately a few projects such as the North-South highway and Long Thanh international airport. As 2020 is the last year of the mid-term public investment plan for 2016-2020, disbursements are expected to rise 16% y/y to VND 500 trillion.
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