Sugar sector outlook for the new crop year 2025-26 – Difficulties are not over
• As of September 2025, global raw sugar prices reached $0.35/kg, down -21.9% YoY, with further declines expected due to weak U.S. demand amid tariff impacts on consumer confidence, while supply recovers from better-than-expected production in Brazil and Thailand, and anticipated easing of India’s sugar export ban.• In Vietnam, excess inventories at mills surged post strong 2023-24 and 2024-25 harvests, compounded by rising illegal cane sugar imports and high-fructose corn syrup (HFCS) inflows. Firms with robust sugar output are forced to sacrifice selling prices, and vice versa. As of September 2025, AnKhe sugar prices at mills stood at VND 17,500/kg (-13.0% YoY).
• We note a strong correlation (90%) between domestic sugar price trends and sugar industry stocks like QNS. Thus, we recommend investors closely monitor domestic sugar price movements to make informed short- and long-term investment decisions in sugar-related stocks.
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