TCH - leveraging land bank advantages, mitigating cash flow risks
• In Q3/FY25 (Oct 1 - Dec 31, 2025), TCH recorded modest revenue of VND 317 billion (-63% YoY, -8% QoQ) – as the company had handed over most products at older projects, while the handover schedule for the new project was delayed to Q4 of the fiscal year. For Q4, we expect the company's two key projects (HH New City II and HH Green River) to begin handover, acting as a premise for the company to record a surge in revenue during the period, with Q4 revenue and NPAT-MI expected to reach VND 3,700 billion (+331% YoY) and VND 1,300 billion (+593% YoY), respectively.• In the short term, although the high-interest-rate environment has slowed down the company's sales, TCH will still minimize cash flow risks thanks to a safe capital structure: a very low leverage (debt) ratio, combined with the expected net cash flow from housing handovers. We forecast TCH's revenue in FY25-26 to reach VND 4.7 trillion (flat compared to 2024) and VND 8.5 trillion (+80% YoY), respectively; NPAT-MI for FY26 is projected at VND 2.66 trillion (+86% YoY). TCH is currently trading at a 2026 P/B of 0.9x, an attractive valuation given the company's position and growth potential.
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