TRADE UPDATE JUN 2025: Reaching the Finish Line Early in Trade Negotiations with the US
The front-loading effect in export orders ahead of tariff deadlines appears to be cooling down. In the first 6 months of 2025 (6M2025), exports increased by 15.3% year-over-year (YoY), while imports rose by 18.6%. The front-loading effect was strong among FDI enterprises.During 6M2025, electronics recorded the highest export growth (+20.5%), and imports of electronic raw materials also saw the largest increase (+34.3%).
Exports to the US peaked in May and plateaued in June. Vietnam posted a trade surplus of approximately USD62 billion with the US in 6M2025, up 29.2% YoY.
Besides traditional export markets, Vietnam's exports to other markets were robust (+13.5% YoY).
The demand for front-loading exports ahead of the tariff deadline remained strong in electronics, toys, chemicals, plastics, and rubber. Meanwhile, this demand has declined in seafood, footwear, and wood products.
The results of the Vietnam-US trade negotiations were announced on July 2, with a reciprocal tariff rate of 20% and a 40% tariff on transshipped goods, although the details of the agreement remain unclear.
There may be no significant differences in the final reciprocal tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on Asian countries, except for China.
See our further assessment of the tariff negotiation outcomes in Theme 1: Adapting to an Uncertain Environment, part of the 2H2025 Investment Strategy Report, available here.
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