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VGI – 9M2025 PBT beats annual plan by 33%, market price is discounted to an attractive zone

• In 3Q2025, VGI recorded net revenue of VND 11,622 bn (+27% YoY), NPAT-MI of VND 4,160 bn (20 times higher than the same period last year, driven by a low base as 3Q2024 was affected by financial costs from revaluation exchange rate differences). Cumulatively, 9M2025 net revenue reached VND 31,793 bn (+23.6% YoY), with NPAT-MI of VND 5,982 bn (+159% YoY). Revenue and PBT achieved 82% and 139% of VGI’s 2025 target, respectively (equivalent to 75% and 73% of VDSC’s forecast).
• Revenue contribution from companies in African, Latin American, and Southeast Asian accounted for 53%/13%/40%, respectively, with growth was primarily driven by new subscriber additions and upselling services to existing subscribers to increase ARPU, rather than telecom tariff hike. 4G subscribers in Q3 increased 2.5 times above quarterly plan, adding 1.89 million new subscribers.
• With its strong and stable operational capabilities in overseas markets, VGI achieved growth far above the domestic industry average (3–5%/year in 2022–2024) and global average (under 7%, according to PwC). We have slightly revised up our 2025 revenue and NPATMI estimates for VGI, projecting a 20% YoY increase for the full year (driven by broader coverage and faster-than-expected new subscriber growth). The target price is set at VND 81,800/share, corresponding to a BUY recommendation (expected return of 20%).