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VIETNAM MONEY AND BOND MARKET REPORT NOV 2025: BALANCING STABILITY AND GROWTH

The SBV continued to manage system liquidity in November via term purchase operations, providing moderate support. The outstanding balance of these operations rose 20.2% compared with end-October, indicating that short-term funding demand in the banking system remains elevated and has yet to fully cool down.
The spread between the free market and official USD/VND exchange rates has stayed wide since mid-October, at around VND1,249/USD as of 25 November. Although this gap has started to narrow since mid-November, it remains notably above its normal range, reflecting lingering VND depreciation expectations and ongoing FX hoarding by households.
In the near term, the SBV’s planned FX supply of roughly USD4.4bn is the key anchor for expectations on the official FX market. In addition, the usual year-end pick-up in remittances, together with a VND–USD interbank interest rate differential that is being kept at a supportive level, should help stabilise the currency.
Several previously hawkish Fed officials have turned more dovish in recent remarks. Coupled with a run of weaker-than-expected labour market and consumption data, markets are now pricing in a 25bps Fed rate cut in December, which should also provide some support to the VND.In October 2025, winning volumes at government bond auctions recovered versus the previous two months, lifting 10M25 cumulative issuance to VND283.4trn, equivalent to 56.7% of the annual plan, while average winning yields rose a further 21bp MoM. The bid-to-offer ratio of 67.2% and allocation-to-offer ratio of 40.7% remain at the lower end of this year’s range, although they have improved gradually across recent sessions. In 4Q, the State Treasury aims to issue VND145trn of government bonds to reach the full-year target of VND500trn.
On the primary market, corporate bond issuance in October 2025 rebounded clearly, with 52 deals totalling VND64.6trn (+29% MoM, +90% YoY), suggesting the corporate bond channel is gradually recovering after a prolonged quiet period. Cumulatively, issuance reached VND442.0trn over the first ten months (+38.9% YoY). By tenor, bonds with maturities below five years accounted for 74.5% of total issuance value, reflecting issuers’ preference for short- to medium-term debt to mitigate interest rate risk and retain flexibility for liability restructuring.
Early redemptions in October amounted to VND19.5trn (+9.7% YoY), indicating that corporates continue to proactively buy back outstanding debt, though the pace has cooled compared with 3Q. Looking ahead, the maturity wall rises sharply in December, with around VND30trn coming due, versus a relatively calm November with only about VND3.1trn of redemptions.