Vietnamese Beer Market Outlook 2026 – Favorable Seasonal Timing
• Alongside tighter regulatory policies and demand segmentation, Vietnam’s beer industry has undergone a period of “reshaping” since 2025. Beer production for the 2026 Tet (Oct-Dec 2025) rose slightly by 6% compared to the pre-Tet 2025 period (Sep-Nov 2024). This suggests that brewers were more optimistic about beer consumption for Tet 2026 compared to the previous year, when the market was significantly impacted by Decree 168/2024/ND-CP on alcohol-related traffic violations.• To offset weakening demand and in anticipation of the roadmap to increase excise tax by 5% annually starting from 2027, brewers have begun raising selling prices by 5–7% across selected product lines since post-2025 (Figure 5). We believe retail price increases will not occur aggressively, as brewers need to simultaneously consider factors such as overall purchasing power, product segmentation, and competitors’ pricing strategies to avoid negative consumer reactions.
• Beyond these factors, a key concern for producers lies in input material costs. Aluminum cans have increased sharply (+28% YoY as of end-Q1/2026), following the upward trend in metal prices and anticipated supply declines amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East (which accounts for approximately 9.0% of global supply). In contrast, malt prices are trending downward (-6.3% YoY as of Q1/2026, returning to levels seen in 2020 due to global oversupply following a strong 2024-2025 harvest). We believe this will partially help contain the overall increase in industry-wide production costs.
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