Report

Vietnam’s Credit Growth Is Likely To Miss The Annual Target Of 17%

Currently, we see more and more signals of low credit growth in 2018. Furthermore, it is possible that the 17% target set at the beginning of the year will not be met. According to GSO, Vietnam’s credit growth stood at 6.4% YTD at the end of June 2018, lower than the last two years’. In 2018, credit growth is likely to be at 15%-16% YoY, owing in part to a slightly tighter monetary policy. In our view, global changes, including generally tightening monetary policies around the world have been putting pressure on State Bank of Vietnam (SBV). If the FED ended its QEs before normalizing the monetary policy via interest rate hikes and selling securities assets, the credit growth is likely to be lower before rising the interest rates due to changes in the global environment.

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Viet Dragon Securities
Viet Dragon Securities

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