VNM – Stock market prices has decreased to attractive levels
- Vinamilk set 2024 business targets with revenue and net profit of VND 63,163 bn (or USD 2,527 mn) and VND 9,376 bn (USD 375 mn), respectively. We interpret that this is a conservative plan, in the pillars of (1) successful outcomes of VNM's strategic initiative; (2) advantage of below-year ago raw milk powder costs; and (3) VNM’s history of high completion rate for its annual business targets
- 2024 Net sales and NPAT-MI is predicted to be VND 63,065 bn (or USD 2,523 mn; +4.5% YoY) and VND 9,462 bn (or USD 378 mn; +6.6% YoY), respectively. The equivalent EPS is VND4,075. Sales will be driven by the growth in both domestic and oversea markets. NPAT-MI to increase at a higher pace than the revenue, supported by decreased input costs
- We combined FCFF valuation model (50%) and multiples comparison (50%) with an applied 2024 P/E of 18.0x, producing the target price of VND81,500. Adding an expected cash dividend of VND3,850, the 12-month expected return is 33% compared to the closing price on Apr 22nd 2024, equivalent to BUY recommendation
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