VSC - New growth from ecosystem expansion and financial investments
We recommend an OBSERVE on VSC.• VSC’s revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 8% for 2025–2029, driven by container handling operations.
o Container handling activities: Strong growth is expected due to the acquisition of Nam Hai Dinh Vu port, forming a dual-port cluster with VIP Green, increasing total system capacity to 1.5 million TEU/year (+60%). We project throughput to achieve a CAGR of 6%, equivalent to 1.3 million TEU in 2025 and 1.6 million TEU in 2029. Container handling revenue is expected to reach VND 1,562 billion in 2025 and VND 2,242 billion in 2029, in line with a CAGR of 8%. Container handling service fees are expected to remain high at VND 1.2 million/TEU in 2025, with an assumed annual increase of 3% in line with USD/VND exchange rate trends.
o Non-container handling: Expected to maintain a supportive role in growth. Warehousing revenue is expected to achieve a CAGR of 8%, driven by increased CFS warehouse utilization rates. Transportation revenue is expected to maintain a CAGR of 6%, supported by demand in the Central region and stable high service price levels. Meanwhile, forwarding revenue growth is expected to slow to 7% due to freight rate adjustments, though this segment will remain key.
• Financial investment activities: Since 2024, VSC’s financial activities have become more dynamic due to capital allocation into listed stock investments. In the first half of 2025, financial revenue reached VND 100 billion, with VND 78 billion derived from stock investments, accounting for about 40% of net profit after tax. Additionally, in Q3-FY25, VSC is estimated to record an additional VND 585 billion from divesting a 20% stake in VIP Green Port JSC (UPCOM: VGR).
• During the 2025–2029 period, VSC’s gross profit margin is projected to remain around 28%, lower than previously due to a significant increase in depreciation costs from the consolidation of NHDV. The core net profit margin is expected to improve, driven by reduced interest expenses and enhanced operational efficiency at NHDV, maintaining a range of 2.1–2.6%.
For 2025, Revenue and NPAT-MI are projected to reach VND 3,127 billion (+12% YoY) and VND 696 billion (+107% YoY), respectively. The corresponding EPS is VND 1,860. Excluding extraordinary profit from the divestment of a subsidiary, NPAT-MI is estimated at VND 327 billion (flat YoY).
Risks to recommendations: The value of VSC’s trading securities accounts for about 15% of total assets, and the company employs high leverage for margin trading. As a result, the stock’s performance is highly sensitive to significant fluctuations in the stock market.
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