Yellow Phosphorus 2026 – Supply Risks and the New Export Tax
• In 2025, export prices of phosphorus for the whole industry recovered slightly, while export volumes of DGC (accounting for 50% of Vietnam’s total capacity) grew more positively than other companies thanks to its large exposure to the Japanese market – where customers are mainly in high-tech industries, especially semiconductor manufacturing.• For 2026, we expect total industry P4 export volume to decline by 30% YoY, due to: 1/ Significant risks related to environmental issues and mining activities, and 2/ Export tax increasing to 10% (from the current 5%) starting next year, which is highly likely to push many companies (whose main export markets are India and the UAE) to shift sales toward Japan (which enjoys tax incentives) and the domestic market to preserve profit margins. Vietnamese P4 prices are unlikely to increase in non-Japan markets, given the high substitution risk from Kazakhstan’s P4 (typically priced about 30% lower than Vietnam’s).
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