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COMMODITIES OUTLOOK - April 2019 - Base Metals Ending Counter-Trend Upswing from last August - Significant Downside Risk - US Dollar Strength Pulling Precious Metals Lower - Crude/Brent Oil Ending Counter-Trend

In This Edition: The U.S. dollar continues to play an important role for all dollar-based commodities so this month’s report takes an in-depth look at two key composite cycles of the US$ dollar index. There’s some short-term divergence between the daily and weekly time-series but convergence begins from the beginning of May. Combined with Elliott Wave analysis overly, the dollar’s direction and amplitude derived from Fib-Price-Ratios projects a concise picture of the dollar’s path for the next few months. WaveTrack International’s commodity ‘Inflation-Pop’ theme entered its 2^nd phase of the medium-term uptrend at the grand ‘Re-Synchronisation’ lows of Jan/Feb.’16.

Since then, an initial uptrend has ended intermediate wave (1) into the 2018 highs – 2019 represents the continuation of wave (2) corrective declines. We report on the latest price-development within wave (2) for all the base metals, including Copper alongside a new daily composite cycle. There’s pattern uniformity across the base metals, including Aluminium, Lead, Zinc, Nickel and Tin together with the latest price-projections.

In Precious Metals, the impact of the US$ dollar is more influential than current anxieties over a weakening global economy. There are downside risks which we explore for gold, silver, and platinum but within the context of the larger ‘Inflation-Pop’ uptrend. Palladium has declined rapidly over the last month – our analysis updates its current downside targets.

The Energy equity markets are vulnerable to a dip as are the key underlying commodities such as Crude and Brent oil. But there are still upside possibilities before a downturn begins – we analyse and project the key price levels alongside a new weekly composite cycle for Crude oil.