reports
- Peter Goodburn
EW-COMMODITIES OUTLOOK - March 2020 - Base Metals Heading for Major Lo...
In This Edition: This month’s Elliott Wave Commodities report updates the latest price developments for key benchmarks, Copper, Gold and Crude oil following steep declines during February’s stock market plunge. The coronavirus COVID-19 has spread from its epicentre in Wuhan city, China to other Asian regions with South Korea and Japan particularly effected with the former reporting cases of over 5,800, the largest outside of China. But Europe is now reporting an alarming increase of contagion. ...
- Peter Goodburn
COMMODITIES OUTLOOK - December 2019 - Phase-One Trade Deal Lethargy! â...
The two key drivers for most commodities remain the direction/amplitude of the US$ dollar and the ongoing trade-tariff negotiations between the U.S. and China. For the most part, the US$ dollar index was identified last October as resuming its 7.8-year cycle downtrend which originated from the Jan.’17 peak of 103.82. Despite the market’s bullish interpretation from a phase-one trade deal, the outlook remains very bearish. So what does this suggest? – does the trade-deal collapse or does its effe...
- Peter Goodburn
The EW-Navigator - December 2019 - Benchmark Indices set for Correctiv...
Bank of America/Merrill Lynch’s latest Global Fund Manager Survey identified a huge surge higher for stock market optimism during the last month. The survey noted that improving growth prospects, driven in part by lower interest rates and increasing optimism that the US and China are nearing a phase 1 trade deal have injected vitality into risky assets and an unwinding of safe-haven assets. The allocation to global equities climbed 20 percentage points month on month to net 21% overweight, the h...
- Peter Goodburn
COMMODITIES OUTLOOK - November 2019 - Forget Up-Coming Recession, Its ...
In This Edition: The latest PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) data shows the global economy weakening again in September’s latest data release. The JPMorgan Global PMI which is compiled by HIS IHS Markit declined to 51.2, a three-year low. Manufacturing, Services and New Export Orders all show a familiar theme of declines since late-2010/early-2011. This period of stagnation followed a strong upside recovery in PMI’s from the financial-crisis lows of 30.0 – the peak into 2010/11 was 60.0. In fact,...
- Peter Goodburn
The EW-Navigator - November 2019 - Downside risks in equities - defens...
The U.S./China trade war continues to hold investors/asset/fund managers back. Some positive news filtered through last week following the latest meetings in Washington but the outlook remains fragile. In its latest monthly Fund Manager Survey, Bank of America/Merrill Lynch said that over the past six months, money market funds attracted $322 billion of inflows, the largest flight to safe assets since the second half of 2008. In similar fashion to 2007 and 2008, investors raised their cash holdi...
- Peter Goodburn
COMMODITIES OUTLOOK - October 2019 - Copper on course to finalise corr...
In This Edition: The dollar began its 7.8-year cycle downtrend in Jan.’17 completing its 1st wave decline in Feb.’18 which means the subsequent 2nd wave counter-trend rally to current levels is overdue for completion. Will the dollar stage a reversal-signature decline now? – and what impact will a declining US$ dollar have on commodities over the next several years? Elliott Wave and Cycle Analysis take an impartial look at the current set-up. It may seem obvious, but does a weakening dollar fit ...
- Peter Goodburn
COMMODITIES OUTLOOK - September 2019 - Copper on course to finalise co...
In This Edition: This month’s report begins by updating the US$ dollar index position. It comes at a critical time when the dollar is holding just above major support – should the recent downswing post July’s Federal Reserve high continue, it would confirm 2018’s corrective 2nd wave upswing has ended. That would be good news for U.S. President Trump who’s accused China and Europe of currency manipulation. But what impact would a new sustained downtrend have for commodities? The historical negati...
- Peter Goodburn
The EW-Navigator - U.S./European Stock Indices continue lower into lat...
In This Edition: The U.S./China trade negotiations have deteriorated over the last month which is affecting the entire global economy. The IMF have issued repeated warnings of a global meltdown should trade negotiations falter whilst the latest Reuters polls show pessimistic sentiment is adding to the bearish mood. In its July sensor, Reuters asked 250 economists their expectations – 70% per cent project global growth to slow further with recession risks increasing – that was a jump fr...
- Peter Goodburn
COMMODITIES OUTLOOK - August 2019 - Base Metals set to Decline in fina...
Base Metals set to Decline in final phase of Corrective Pattern from 2018 highs – Copper, Aluminium, Lead, Zinc & Nickel heading lower – Gold attempting to complete 5 Wave Uptrend from Aug.’18 low – then begin Sizable Downside Correction – GDX to Decline over Next Months – Silver/Platinum Lower – Crude/Brent Oil Outlook Remains Bearish Our mid-year Elliott Wave Commodities Outlook Part II report updated our existing portfolio of commodity contracts throughout the entire EW-Forecast database (pl...
- Peter Goodburn
COMMODITIES OUTLOOK - July 2019 - Commodities In Final Leg Of 2018’s...
Commodity super-cycle uptrends from the Great Depression lows ended into various peaks in years-2006-08. A multi-decennial/corrective/deflationary downswing has since been taking the form of an Elliott Wave expanding flat pattern, composed of three main price swings, labelled A-B-C, down-up-down. This is also referred to as the ‘’ event. Wave A’s decline unfolded from the dot.com peak of 2000 ending into the financial-crisis lows of 2008/09 – wave B develops a decennial advance as the ‘INFLATION...
- Peter Goodburn
COMMODITIES OUTLOOK - June 2019 - US$ Dollar Correction of -2.6% - Min...
In This Edition: As the U.S./China trade tariff negotiations intensify with the U.S. declaring an outright ban on corporations dealing with Chinese technology company Huawei, this month’s report focuses on the relevance of the US$ dollar to commodity prices. The US$ dollar index, our broad measure has continued higher as a counter-trend pattern since reaching a low in February ’18 at 88.26 – it’s recently up to 98.37 which is a gain of +11.45% per cent. The latest Elliott Wave analysis concludes...
- Peter Goodburn
The NAVIGATOR - June 2019 - Stock Markets Set to Resume Lower – Some...
The U.S./China trade negotiations took a turn for the worse over the last couple of weeks which had obvious knock-on effects for global stock markets. May’s initial downswing in benchmark indices including the S&P 500 have developed into typical Elliott Wave impulse patterns, containing five wave structures. That means we can expect more downside continuity over the coming weeks. But just how far can these declines go? This month’s EW-Navigator answers this by measuring the initial decline with ...
- Peter Goodburn
COMMODITIES OUTLOOK - May 2019 - US$ Dollar Trend Upwards – Base Met...
US$ Dollar Trend Upwards – Base Metals Staged Reversal-Signature, Outlook Remains Bearish – Crude/Brent Oil Ends December’s Run Higher, Significant Downside Risk – Gold/Silver Continue Corrective Downswing – Platinum Higher, Palladium Lower Global economies hang in the balance – there’s no doubt that U.S. President Trump’s trade policies have dented economic expansion in various parts of the world, particularly in Europe and to some extent, China too - but the big question remains whether it w...
- Peter Goodburn
The NAVIGATOR - May 2019 - Stock Markets Preparing for Reversal-Downsw...
The latest Fund Manager Survey from Bank of America/Merrill Lynch polled 239 investment pro’s with an AUM of $664 billion in its April 5th -11th . It showed some interesting facts – investors were positioned for ‘secular stagnation’, long assets that outperform when growth and interest rates are declining whilst short assets that are aligned to growth/rate advancing such as emerging markets and utilities. A total of 66% polled expected the secular stagnation to continue, the highest levels since...
- Peter Goodburn
COMMODITIES OUTLOOK - April 2019 - Base Metals Ending Counter-Trend Up...
In This Edition: The U.S. dollar continues to play an important role for all dollar-based commodities so this month’s report takes an in-depth look at two key composite cycles of the US$ dollar index. There’s some short-term divergence between the daily and weekly time-series but convergence begins from the beginning of May. Combined with Elliott Wave analysis overly, the dollar’s direction and amplitude derived from Fib-Price-Ratios projects a concise picture of the dollar’s path for the next f...
The NAVIGATOR - April 2019 - Stock Markets Set for 2-3 Month Correctiv...
In This Edition: December’s stunning V-shaped reversal has sent U.S. stock indices higher by +20% per cent prompting commentators to reverse bear-market sell-signals into last year’s lows into new bullish bull-signals. But there are two competing forces at work – one which suggests the bull market will continue higher once the U.S./China trade dispute is resolved during the next month - the other which shows increasing downward momentum in global economic activity with calls for a mild...
- Peter Goodburn
COMMODITIES OUTLOOK - March 2019 - 2018’s Base Metals’ Correction ...
In This Edition: Commodity markets began across-the-board counter-trend downswings in 2018 with Base Metals, Precious Metals and Crude/Brent oil unfolding into different rhythms. Base Metals are still engaged in those declines, as are Crude/Brent oil whilst Precious Metals have already resumed the larger/medium-term ‘Inflation-Pop’ uptrend which kicked-off its 2nd phase in early 2016. This month’s report begins with an in-depth look at the US$ dollar’s trend and how that impacts the coming month...
- Peter Goodburn
The NAVIGATOR - February 2019 - US$ Dollar Continues Higher into Mid-Y...
US$ Dollar Continues Higher into Mid-Year 2019 before 7.8-Year Cycle Reasserts Downtrend – Long-Dated U.S./European Yields Heading Lower until June/July then Resuming Medium-Term Uptrend – Inflation Lower, then Surges Higher until 2021-24 INCLUDES ANALYSIS ON MAJOR US$ DOLLAR PAIRS/CROSSES – ASIAN/EM CURRENCIES - MEDIUM-TERM CYCLES – LONG-DATED YIELDS US/EUROPE/JAPAN + SPREADS Highlights - Currencies The US$ dollar index is set to extend 2018’s counter-trend recovery through H1’19 – upside ...
- Peter Goodburn
COMMODITIES OUTLOOK - January 2019 - Commodity Prices to Resume ‘Inf...
Highlights The long-term positive-correlations between the economy, stock markets and commodities is an historical constant through each major peak and trough since the Great Depression – the next major peak is expected to see a similar, synchronised event, accompanied by typical signs of over-exuberance – specifically, the hedonistic buying of assets, both stocks and commodities with widespread public participation Calls for the beginning of a new secular-bear downtrend in U.S. stock marke...
- Peter Goodburn
COMMODITIES OUTLOOK -December 2018 - 2018’s Base Metals’ Correctio...
In This Edition: The US$ dollar has held up close to this year’s highs during the last month which has created headwinds for most of the major commodity markets. The other negative aspect is uncertainty surrounding the up-coming trade-tariff talks between the U.S. and China at the G20 meeting in Buenos Aires, Argentina at the end of November. But there’s also a growing concern about a slowing of growth in developed economies. Despite strong stock market declines in October, we remain more optimi...
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