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COMMODITIES OUTLOOK - August 2019 - Base Metals set to Decline in final phase of Corrective Pattern from 2018 highs – Copper, Aluminium, Lead, Zinc & Nickel heading lower – Gold attempting to complete Uptrend

Base Metals set to Decline in final phase of Corrective Pattern from 2018 highs – Copper, Aluminium, Lead, Zinc & Nickel heading lower – Gold attempting to complete 5 Wave Uptrend from Aug.’18 low – then begin Sizable Downside Correction – GDX to Decline over Next Months – Silver/Platinum Lower – Crude/Brent Oil Outlook Remains Bearish

Our mid-year Elliott Wave Commodities Outlook Part II report updated our existing portfolio of commodity contracts throughout the entire EW-Forecast database (please use your log-in credentials for access). This included 72 charts on Base Metals, Precious Metals & Energy but also updating commodity related equities in the portfolio. The results show the dip in the medium-term ‘Inflation-Pop’ uptrend began early/mid-2018 with counter-trend corrections in key contracts including Copper, Gold and Crude/Brent oil. This dip was the result of a strengthening US$ dollar and growing concern of a global economic decline due to the continuing trade war set in motion by the U.S. President Donald Trump.

This month’s report updates the US$ dollar’s recent push higher, measuring upside targets for year-end 2019 and what impact this will have on these commodities. Base Metals began 2018 with corrective 2^nd wave corrections but these are mostly incomplete for Copper, Aluminium, Lead, Zinc and even Nickel. Gold has attracted a lot of attention since breaking above 2016’s high of 1375.27 with a consensus outlook of surging price rises. Although upside targets are still $100 dollars away, a prolonged advance seems unlikely basis seasonal and cycle analysis – we examine the probabilities into year-end along with silver, platinum and palladium. Crude oil staged a -45% per cent decline last October – it was a vertical decline lasting only a couple of months, but critically, this developed into an Elliott Wave impulse pattern. That’s very bearish going forward given a correction to this decline has already completed into the April high. This report updates the current location of price development alongside new short-term cycle analysis and updates for Brent oil.