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COMMODITIES OUTLOOK - July 2019 - Commodities In Final Leg Of 2018’s Corrective Downswing – Additional Sell-Off Forecast Thro’ H2-2019 – Major Lows Year-End Followed By Inflation-Pop Upsurge In 2020

Commodity super-cycle uptrends from the Great Depression lows ended into various peaks in years-2006-08. A multi-decennial/corrective/deflationary downswing has since been taking the form of an Elliott Wave expanding flat pattern, composed of three main price swings, labelled A-B-C, down-up-down. This is also referred to as the ‘’ event. Wave A’s decline unfolded from the dot.com peak of 2000 ending into the financial-crisis lows of 2008/09 – wave B develops a decennial advance as the ‘INFLATION-POP’ phase where prices extend momentarily to new record highs – wave C eventually begins a generational decline from years 2021-23 onwards, collapsing commodity prices by 80-90% per cent in the final ‘DROP’ phase

The ‘’ advance began lifting asset prices, stocks, commodities, real estate etc. from the financial-crisis lows of 2008/09 – this is typically unfolding higher as Elliott Wave single or double ZIG ZAGS, i.e. up-down-up or A-B-C. Wave A completed an initial advance into the year-2011 highs – wave B completed a corrective downswing into the Jan/Feb.’16 lows – wave C has since been pushing prices higher but with upside price objectives still, some way off, targeting record highs over the next several years

Wave C of the inflation-pop must ultimately subdivide into a five wave impulse pattern, 1-2-3-4-5. Wave 1 completed an initial advance ending into the early-2018 highs – wave 2 remains in downward progress – latest forecasts projects significant declines across most sectors through the second-half of 2019 into year-end prior to beginning a wave 3 uptrend

Base Metals – Copper is engaged in a 2^nd wave corrective downswing that began from the Jan.’18 high of 7312.50 – labelled as a double zig zag pattern, the secondary zig zag sequence remains incomplete with downside targets towards 5265+/-, scheduled to complete sometime into year-end. Aluminium is similarly unfolding into a 2^nd wave correction with downside targets towards 1540+/-, Lead towards 1636+/-, Zinc to 1935+/-, Nickel towards 10880+/- and Tin towards 17055+/-. Once completed, 3^rd wave upside acceleration gets underway, sending prices to record highs over the next couple of years  

Base Metal Miners – The 3-5 year outlook remains very bullish with many forecast into new record highs. 2018’s corrective declines are in some cases completed, but others show downside risk into H2-2019. Copper miners are particularly vulnerable to an extended decline of -25% per cent – Glencore is a good example

Precious Metals – Gold and silver have two wave counts running juxtaposed over the medium-term period of the next several years, one bullish, the other bearish. Both depict a shorter-term decline though H2-2019 resulting from a US$ dollar surge higher of around +7% per cent. Gold is forecast above 1500.00+/- but then beginning a counter-trend decline towards 1329.50+/-, max. 1264.00+/-. Silver remains within a downtrending double/triple zig zag pattern that began from its July ’16 high of 21.14 – it’s set to resume from a recent high of 15.56 with downside targets towards 13.13+/-. Platinum remains in a downtrending five wave impulse pattern that originated from the April ’11 high of 1921.00 – downside targets towards 702.10+/- but then beginning a huge multi-year advance together with gold and silver. Palladium is expected to continue a corrective downswing that began from its March ’19 high of 1624.33 – targets towards 1083.45+/-.

Precious Metal Miners – Probably one of the best investments for the next few years. These are expected to vastly outperform the underlying precious metals just as they did by a factor of 10:1 during the advance in year-2016. Shorter-term, the PM-miners are set to extend higher, then fall back into a correction as gold/silver/platinum begin their next declines – secondary lows are forecast into year-end, prior to the next upward price surge

Energy – Like its stock index counterparts, Crude & Brent oil began counter-trend A-B-C zig zag corrections from their Oct.’18 highs. Wave A ended an initial decline for Crude Oil from 76.90 into last December’s low of 42.36 – wave B has since ended into the April ’19 high of 66.60 – wave C has since begun to pull lower – downside targets towards min. 36.70+/-. Brent oil’s equivalent low is forecast towards 43.52+/-. Looking much further ahead, both contracts are then due to turn higher from 2020 onwards, resulting in a multi-year advance that breaks into new record highs as the completion of the ‘Inflation-Pop’. The XLE-Energy index is turning more immediately bullish having completed a corrective downswing this year from 68.81 to 58.77.