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COMMODITIES OUTLOOK - May 2017

In This Edition: The Base Metals have extended lower over the last month, breaking below the March retracement lows. This was not our preferred scenario although provision was made for deeper corrections in ‘alternate counts’. Even though prices have traded deeper, original forecasts for another upswing to take place over the next couple of months remains intact. This month’s report adds a close-up view of Nickel prices – we consider this an important benchmark study because the pattern development is clearly unfolding into a multi-month expanding flat. This means that its downside potential is very limited right now, with a forecast for an upswing of +25% per cent over the next few months. This would correlate to the expected push higher in other base metals, including Copper, Lead and Zinc. In precious metals, another benchmark is used in the form of Platinum. Once again, declines from February’s highs traded as corrective sequences into the early-March lows and whilst Gold and to some extent Silver have outperformed and are in no danger of breaking these lows, Platinum and the Precious Metal Miners have the capacity of breaking modestly below before resuming larger uptrends. In Energy, both Crude and Brent Oil remain very bearish. A large proportion of built-up speculative COT long positioning has been liquidated over the last month as prices underwent a corrective upswing. But prices are forecast to accelerate lower over the next few months as the concluding sequence of an annualised expanding flat pattern.