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COMMODITIES OUTLOOK - May 2019 - US$ Dollar Trend Upwards – Base Metals Staged Reversal-Signature, Outlook Remains Bearish – Crude/Brent Oil Ends December’s Run Higher, Significant Downside Risk

US$ Dollar Trend Upwards – Base Metals Staged Reversal-Signature, Outlook Remains Bearish – Crude/Brent Oil Ends December’s Run Higher, Significant Downside Risk – Gold/Silver Continue Corrective Downswing – Platinum Higher, Palladium Lower

Global economies hang in the balance – there’s no doubt that U.S. President Trump’s trade policies have dented economic expansion in various parts of the world, particularly in Europe and to some extent, China too - but the big question remains whether it will affect the U.S. too? A dip in the U.S. economy would undoubtedly pull commodity prices lower through the remaining period of 2019.

We already surmise with some conviction that our medium-term ‘Inflation-Pop’ outlook that forecasts commodity prices surging to record highs over the next few years will manifest as originally planned some years ago. But the same analysis also predicted an inflationary dip last early last year, in 2018 – that dip is reflected in large declines in Base Metal prices and the Energy Markets like Crude/Brent Oil. Those commodities are still in this regression phase that began last year but are set to enter the next but final stage of it, over the next several months.

This month’s report highlights the exact price levels within this inflation-dip lower, measuring the amplitude declines forecast across the different sectors, Base Metals, Precious Metals and Energy together with varying cycles which attempt to time the lows before year-end.