COMMODITY OUTLOOK - Aluminium & Nickel Stage Bearish Reversal-Signatures - Precious Metals Poised to Trade Higher - XLE Energy Remains in Uptrend
In This Edition: Additional trade sanctions imposed by President Trump’s administration on Russia due to escalating tensions in Syria and Crimea have triggered some erratic and volatile price moves in key commodities like Aluminium and Nickel over the last month. This month’s Elliott Wave Commodities Outlook updates these contracts, highlighting important trend changes which correlate to the overall Base Metals price-forecasts of the last several months. Copper, Lead and Zinc ended their 1st wave uptrends that originated back in early 2016 earlier this year, which confirms counter-trend declines have begun 2nd wave development which can last another several months.
This indicates a temporary downturn in Emerging Market economies for a while, something supported in our recent updates for EM’s in the monthly EW-Navigator report. Core industrial commodities like Iron Ore are down -18% per cent since January so this month’s report focuses on the very latest Elliott Wave analysis to determine if this downswing is going to continue.
Whilst base metals are set to give back some of the last 2-year’s gains, it’s a mixed story for Precious Metals which are hinged against the US$ dollar’s movement. Recent inflationary expectations have risen but this has had little effect on lifting gold, silver or platinum higher. The US$ dollar’s recovery advance from January’s low is behind the underperformance but this is expected to change over the next couple of months. This report explores the upside potential for gold, silver and platinum whilst giving some context to the dollar’s up-coming movement from cycle analysis.
The strongest sector within the commodities sphere is Energy – energy stocks underwent a hefty downswing during the stock markets sell-off in January/February but have since surged higher – this aligns to the steady uptrend in Crude and Brent oil – we report on the latest within these uptrends, the pitfalls above current levels and relevant price targets for the remainder of this year.
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