EUR 478.64 For Business Accounts Only

COMMODITY OUTLOOK - Base Metals Building Important Peaks - Gold to Fake-Out Above August '16 High - Crude/Brent Oil Uptrend Intact

In This Edition: U.S. stock markets took a severe tumble earlier last month (February) as concerns over rising inflationary pressures engulfed mainstream sentiment. The Federal Reserve published its ‘minutes’ from January’s FOMC meeting which seemed to exacerbate the issue with fund managers quickly adjusting their rate hike expectations to four consecutive rises of ¼ point for this year. The US$ dollar nudged higher on the news but this along with the -10% per cent decline in stocks seemed to have little impact on the commodity markets. Copper prices traded lower by -6% per cent but that is tiny as a comparison to stocks – Gold range-traded between $1351.00 to $1327.00 although Crude oil traded down from $66.30 to $58.07 so there was some positive correlation. Overall, it didn’t interrupt prevailing uptrends that were in progress beforehand. But there are signs of imminent changes coming not too far ahead. Base metals are forming important interim peaks right now which ends the first phase of uptrends that began from the grand ‘RE-SYNCHRONISATION’ lows of Jan/Feb.’16. They are set to give way to some significant retracement declines for the next several months. The exact trigger for such declines amidst obvious bullish sentiment is unknown, although there are high-probability events which are surfacing, like China’s crackdown on financial lending - a good example was last week’s news that Beijing had seized control of the multi-conglomerate Anbang Insurance. But more obvious and one which we believe will impact all commodities sometime into March/April will be a shift in the US$ dollar’s existing downtrend. The US$ dollar index’s five wave impulse downtrend that began from the Jan.’17 peak is engaged in one final downswing before it turns around to begin a multi-month upside recovery. That would certainly pull all dollar-priced commodities lower although some slowdown in global economies is also another featured event from this month’s report.