Report
Peter Goodburn
EUR 217.16 For Business Accounts Only

CURRENCIES and INTEREST RATES OUTLOOK 2017

Our latest Video/Report analyses over 52 charts and cycles highlighting major trends, reversal levels together with Fibonacci-Price-Ratio projection levels of the major currency pairs/crosses and interest rates of the U.S., Europe and Japan. Don’t hesitate – this is the most thoroughly researched, accurate ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS on the planet. We’ll be taking a look at currency trends over a 50+ year period and projecting these trends into the future – and if you want to see what U.S. interest rates look like over a period of 250+ years, then this latest ANNUAL 2017 ELLIOTT WAVE PRICE-FORECASTS & CYCLE PROJECTIONS will tell you.

  • US$ index
    • Euro/US$
    • Stlg/US$
    • US$/Yen
    • US$/CHF
    • AUD/US$
    • US$/CAD
    • Euro/Stlg
    • Euro/Yen
    • Asian ADXY
    • US$/IDR
    • US$/ZAR
    • US$/BRL
    • US$/RUB
    • US$/CNY
    • U.S. AAA+ Corporate Bond Yield
    • US 30yr Yield
    • US 10yr Yield
    • US 10yr TIPS Break Even Inflation Rate
    • DE 10yr Yield
    • JPY 10yr Yield

  • CURRENCIES: This year’s most anticipated event is the changing trend for the US$ dollar against its G4+ counterparts. Over the last 7.8-year cycle period, the US$ dollar index has traded higher from the pre-financial-crisis lows to current levels but contained within a typical Elliott Wave, THREE price-swing pattern. This is designated a ‘counter-trend’ within the prevailing, dominant downtrend that began from all-time peak of year-1985. This 7.8-year cycle upswing is about to complete, into Q1’17 then stage a reversal-signature that resumes the long-term downtrend. The dollar’s decline over the next several years will be massive, fueling a resurgence in commodity values and other assets classes in this 2nd phase of our ‘INFLATION-POP’ scenario. In fact, the US$ dollar has already begun its decline against major commodity currencies in early 2016 so it is only a matter of time, and not too much of that before the G4+ currency pairs join in on the act. The final stages of the US$ dollar’s upswing of recent years is likely to send bullish dollar sentiment to new peaks although aggregated long-dollar positioning is expected to remain below levels seen in late 2015. The Euro/US$ retains the possibility of testing slightly below parity, towards 0.9856+/- but only if it remains below 1.0910. But soon after, ending its counter-trend decline from July ’08 then turning higher to begin a new 7.8-year cycle recovery. The worst is over for Stlg/US$ with last October’s (2016) Asian ‘Flash-Crash’ sell-off already ending its 8-year decline at 1.1491. The US$/Yen is approaching the end of a counter-trend upswing from last year’s low of 99.02 towards 120.42+/- but then beginning a massive decline that will ultimately pull this currency pair down towards 92.00+/- in the years ahead. This report updates many other pairs and crosses but the overall theme remains the same – US$ dollar declines ahead. New inclusions are the US$/Mexican Peso and US$/Russian Rouble.

    INTEREST RATES: The 60+/- year cycle (peak-to-peak, trough-to-trough) in long-term U.S. interest rates has been consistent over the last 250+ years and we take another look at this development from year-1761 to present day. This cycle forms major trough-to-peak/peak-to-trough intervals of 30+/- years with the last peak forming in year-1981. The current cycle-trough was due in 2011/12 but extended due to Central Bank influence. Recent yield gains at the long-end of the curve confirms the 30+/- year cycle ended last July ’16. A new major uptrend has since got underway, but more recently, accelerating following Donald Trump’s presidential victory last November. European interest rates have only just confirmed they too ended 30+/- year declines last year and are now trending higher – this is particularly true for the benchmark DE10yr Bund yield. The ECB are still engaged in their ‘quantitative easing’ mode until end-2017 but are likely to fall behind the interest-rate curve as they are currently underestimating a pick-up in inflation.


    Provider
    WaveTrack International
    WaveTrack International

    ​WaveTrack International provides bespoke intelligence for Asset Management Corporations, Pension Funds, Total/Absolute-Return/ Hedge Funds, Sovereign Wealth Funds, Corporate and Market-Making/Trading institutions. The ‘deterministic’ qualities of the methodology used often translates into results that are dynamic and – outside consensus estimates. This is suitable for individuals who seek unbiased market research which is ‘technical, quantitative and strategic’ for their investment decision making. WaveTrack’s analysis and research is especially relevant for medium/long-term investment strategies.


    Analysts
    Peter Goodburn

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