EUR 192.16 For Business Accounts Only

Copper | Aluminium | Lead | Zinc | Nickel

​The base metals have generally held up well during April, consolidating the lows of last November/Jan./February. But it’s noticeable that Copper, as a key benchmark has underperformed relative to the others whilst it’s been unable to lift higher into a five wave impulse pattern that would confirm a larger trend reversal. None have done enough on the upside, either by amplitude gains or five wave pattern development to ensure new uptrends have begun. Alternate counts that depicts one additional but final decline below the current lows therefore remain valid.

One positive though is that the XME Metals & Mining index, the equity mining composite shows near-perfect five wave upside development from its Jan.’16 low of 11.38. With an approach to finalising the pattern, this would confirm a new, much larger uptrend has begun. A counter-trend decline is therefore expected to begin in May, lasting through at least to June. This will obviously pull the entire sector lower. It then depends on whether underlying base metals, during this decline, will ultimately consolidate above the existing lows to reinforce a bullish outlook, or underperform and seek to break down to one final lower low. Whichever the case, the XME is providing some comfort that major lows are nigh.