AD Plastik: Fairly valued until the risks fade away (stays HOLD)
We maintain our HOLD rating on AD Plastik, but reduce our 12M price target (PT) to HRK 84 (from HRK 88), implying 9% upside. We now see slightly higher EU revenues in 2022E and 2023E, but scale down Russia, following the announcement of the partial mobilisation, which we expect to affect both supply and demand negatively. With our 80% yoy drop in Russian sales this year, and no improvements in 2023E, we believe the downside potential from the Russian market remains limited, with only a new wave of sanctions complicating the picture further, from a risk perspective. We maintain our previous assumption of no margin normalisation before 2024E, on higher costs and ongoing global supply issues, with no dividends paid to shareholders over the next two years. We believe the risks stemming from a sudden change in Russia/Ukraine are now skewed more to the upside, given our conservative revenue forecasts there.
WOOD & Company is the leading investment bank in Emerging Europe. Founded in 1991 and head-quartered in Prague, our footprint spans the region and touches investors around the globe.
A pioneer in Emerging Europe, WOOD executed many of the first CEE equity trades and landmark investment banking transactions. Our electronic trading platform was the first in the region, and remains the best. We are continually expanding our relevance and reach in these ever-evolving markets.
Our equity market share reflects our stature: 7% in Warsaw, 20% in Bucharest, 16% in Hungary, 40% in Prague and 5% in Vienna. Our distribution is unparalleled, with the largest salesforce in the region, servicing a uniquely diverse investor base.
We couple local expertise with a truly international perspective. With offices on the ground in the region, and in key financial hubs such as London and Milano, we are never far from our clients and we remain at the forefront of what’s afoot in the CEE emerging and frontier landscape.
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