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FIMA Research
  • FIMA Research

Fima Daily Insight 18 April 2024

Please find enclosed our daily market report.Market CommentCroatia CIAK takes over LKQ's Slovenian, Bosnian units Croatia’s annual inflation flat at 4.1% YoY in March IMF raises Croatia's 2024 GDP growth f'cast HDZ wins 61 seats, unofficial election results show Slovenia Telekom Slovenije not to share 2023 profit for now IMF lowers GDP growth expectations for Slovenia to 2% Romania Transelectrica puts out a tender for the construction of a new 400 kV power line Nuclearelectri...

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Flash – Coverage discontinued

We discontinue our coverage of the following stocks, with immediate effect. We caution against using the forecasts, ratings and price target guidance issued previously on these stocks: AD Plastik Arena Hospitality Group Bittnet Ciech Conpet Dogus Otomotiv Ekspress Grupp Fintel Energija Immofinanz Kcell Kernel KGHM Komercijalna Banka NLB Banka Petrol Group S Immo Sava Re Shelly Group (formerly Allterco) STS Group Turk Telekom Turkcell Ulker Zagreb Stock Exchange

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: ARCLK TI; TL Macro; ACP PW; 11B PW; BDX PW; EL RO; M RO; T...

HEADLINES: • Arcelik: a transformation story worth paying for (BUY - reinitiation of coverage) • Turkey macro: CBT surprises with a bold move • Asseco Poland: 2Q23 review - net profit down 13% yoy, 2% above the preliminaries POSITIVE • 11 bit studios: weak 2Q23, slightly above expectations; upward revision of games' production budget NEUTRAL • Budimex: 2Q23 in line with the preliminary figures NEUTRAL • Budimex: may win EUR 3.7bn Rail Baltica contract (BDX's stake at 30%) POSITIVE • Electrica:...

Tea Pevec
  • Tea Pevec

AD Plastik Group: Gradual Recovery Occurring

During the second quarter, we finally see stabilization of the Group’s operations due to a gradual recovery in the supply of semiconductors, leading to an increase in car production. Consequently, in H1 2023 AD Plastik Group recorded an increase in sales revenue of 10.6% YoY, amounting to EUR 62.5m. However, Group’s real recovery still remains to be seen. Also, we note that one factory in Russia does still not work, while another one produces at reduced capacities. Nevertheless, the Group has...

Tea Pevec
  • Tea Pevec

AD Plastik Group: Real Recovery is Still to be Seen

In Q1 2023 AD Plastik Group recorded a drop in sales revenue of 6.3% YoY, amounting to EUR 30.8m. The sales revenues noted a further decrease mainly on the back of lower revenues from Russia. However, it should be emphasized that Group finally sees indicated relief from the semiconductor shortage in the European market, which, consequently, resulted in an increase in customer orders. However, Group’s real recovery still remains to be seen. Finally, we note that one factory in Russian does sti...

Tea Pevec
  • Tea Pevec

AD Plastik Group: Hopefully the Worst Is Behind Us

In FY AD Plastik Group recorded a drop in sales revenue of 26.6% YoY, amounting to HRK 809.2m. This is the result of a few factors: ongoing semiconductor shortage, supply chain problems, increase in input prices and the Russian invasion of Ukraine combined with economic uncertainty. In the last quarter, most western car manufacturers and Russian car manufacturers stopped their production activities. This, consequently, forced their suppliers to do the same, as their input products have no end...

Tea Pevec
  • Tea Pevec

AD Plastik Group: Top and bottom line hurt

In 9M AD Plastik Group recorded a drop in sales revenue of 24.9% YoY, amounting to HRK 612.1m. This is the result of a few factors: ongoing semiconductor shortage, supply chain problems, increase in input prices and the Russian invasion of Ukraine combined with economic uncertainty. In the previous quarter, most western car manufacturers and Russian car manufacturers stopped their production activities. This, consequently, forced their suppliers to do the same, as their input products have no...

Research Team
  • Research Team

The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: Turkey on top again, but muted thi...

EME Equity Market – September 2022 Market performance – in a rough month for the markets, Turkey emerges as the top-performing region, once again. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined 8.3% mom in EUR terms and 10.7% mom in USD in September; while the ISE index outperformed all the other indices once again, but with a muted performance this time, adding just 1.0% mom in EUR terms and 0.1% in local currency terms. All the other indices recorded negative performances, with the Czech PX Index losing 4....

BRE MBANK SA
EUROB EUROBANK ERGASIAS SERVICES & HOLDINGS SA
JMT JERONIMO MARTINS SGPS S.A.
KRU KRUK S.A.
CEZ CEZ AS
PETG PETROL D.D.
CDR CD PROJEKT S.A.
PGN POLSKIE GORNICTWO NAFTOWE I GAZOWNICTWO SA
COG COGNOR HOLDING SA
KOMB KOMERCNI BANKA A.S.
WIZZ WIZZ AIR HOLDINGS PLC
SPL SANTANDER BANK POLSKA SA
GEKTERNA GEK TERNA
MTELEKOM MAGYAR TELEKOM TELECOMMUNICATIONS
PKN POLSKI KONCERN NAFTOWY ORLEN S.A.
SAR GR. SARANTIS S.A.
CCC CCC SA
EEG1T EKSPRESS GRUPP A.S.
AEGN AEGEAN AIRLINES SA
TENERGY TERNA ENERGY S.A.
AUG1L AGROWILL GROUP AB
ENA ENEA S.A.
PGE PGE POLSKA GRUPA ENERGETYCZNA S.A.
POLY POLYMETAL INTERNATIONAL PLC
LVC LIVECHAT SOFTWARE SA
TPEIR PIRAEUS BANK SA
PPC PUBLIC POWER CORPORATION S.A.
CAR INTER CARS S.A.
FROTO FORD OTOMOTIV SANAYI A.S.
THYAO TURK HAVA YOLLARI A.O.
TUPRS TURKIYE PETROL RAFINERILERI A.S.
ECH ECHO INVESTMENT
CPS CYFROWY POLSAT SA
11B 11 BIT STUDIOS S.A.
TPE TAURON POLSKA ENERGIA S.A.
ALRS ALROSA PJSC
DAT DATAWALK SA
ALR ALIOR BANK SA
OTOEL AUTOHELLAS S.A.
BANK OF CYPRUS PCL
HB HELLENIC BANK LTD.
WPL WIRTUALNA POLSKA HOLDING SA
BELA JUMBO S.A.
MONET MONETA MONEY BANK AS
SNG SOCIETATEA NATIONALA DE GAZE NATURALE ROMGAZ SA
ADPL-R-A AD PLASTIK D.D.
H4L1 HALYK SAVINGS BANK OF KAZAKHSTAN GDR
SNP PETROM S.A.
PLZL POLYUS (GDR)
COTE CONPET SA
NBGGY NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE S.A. ADS
SNN SOCIETATEA NATIONALA NUCLEARELECTRICA SA
ELSA SOCIETATEA ENERGETICA ELECTRICA
FP. FONDUL PROPRIETATEA S.A. GDR (REG S)
ALPHA ALPHA BANK
PTKHY PETKIM PETROKIMYA HOLDING AS
CGEO GEORGIA CAPITAL
SOKM SOK MARKETLER TICARET AS
EAT AMREST HOLDINGS SE
NLBR NLB GROUP
SF3 STS GROUP AG
TEN TEN SQUARE GAMES
GR6 GRADUS
FINT FINTEL ENERGIJA
KOFOL KOFOLA CESKOSLOVENSKO A.S.
ALG ALLEGRO.EU SA
CZG CESKA ZBROJOVKA GROUP
INPST INPOST S.A.
PCF PCF GROUP SA
HUGE HUUUGE
WINE PURCARI WINERIES PCL
SHO SHOPER
GPP GRUPA PRACUJ DA
Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: EME macro/strategy, Fintel Energija (stays BUY), AD Plasti...

HEADLINES: • EME macro/strategy: shock therapy to curb inflation, but test institutions and keep FX pressure high • Fintel Energija: growth without windfall taxes or price caps (stays BUY) • AD Plastik: fairly valued until the risks fade away (stays HOLD) • Polish banks: resolution procedures begin for Getin Noble Bank • PKO BP and PZU: are buying shares in PKN Orlen from the State Treasury NEUTRAL • Alior Bank: to pay PLN 53m into the mortgagors' support fund in 2022E NEUTRAL • PCF Group: ...

Alex Boulougouris ... (+3)
  • Alex Boulougouris
  • CFA
  • Ondrej Slama

AD Plastik: Fairly valued until the risks fade away (stays HOLD)

We maintain our HOLD rating on AD Plastik, but reduce our 12M price target (PT) to HRK 84 (from HRK 88), implying 9% upside. We now see slightly higher EU revenues in 2022E and 2023E, but scale down Russia, following the announcement of the partial mobilisation, which we expect to affect both supply and demand negatively. With our 80% yoy drop in Russian sales this year, and no improvements in 2023E, we believe the downside potential from the Russian market remains limited, with only a new wave ...

Ad Plastik d.d: 2 directors

Two Directors at Ad Plastik d.d bought 9,725 shares at 85.820HRK. The significance rating of the trade was 51/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly...

Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: SNP RO; SNG RO; ADPL ZA; WPL PW; GEKTERNA GA

HEADLINES: • Romanian oil and gas: value from the deep (OMV Petrom and Romgaz stay BUY - transfer of coverage) • AD Plastik: out-of-luck hero (stays HOLD) • Wirtualna Polska: acquires Szallas Group for EUR 82m POSITIVE • GEK Terna: signs land agreement with Lamda for Hellinikon • Short News (PPC)

Alex Boulougouris ... (+3)
  • Alex Boulougouris
  • CFA
  • Ondrej Slama

AD Plastik: out-of-luck hero (stays HOLD)

We stick to our HOLD rating on AD Plastik, but reduce our 12M price target (PT) by half, to HRK 88/share (from HRK 176), implying 10% upside. With the European market performing weaker than expected this year and the inevitable revenue hit from Russia, we are more cautious in our mid-term forecasts. We expect solid revenue growth next year already, but it will take some time before the increasing costs are matched by higher product prices, and we do not see margin normalisation before 2024E. Mor...

Tea Pevec
  • Tea Pevec

AD Plastik Group: Strong Wind Blowing in the Wrong Direction

In H1 AD Plastik Group recorded a drop in sales revenue of 29.8% YoY, amounting to HRK 425.7m. This is the result of a few factors: ongoing semiconductor shortage, supply chain problems, increase in input prices and the Russian invasion of Ukraine combined with economic uncertainty. Due to the geopolitical situation, most western car manufacturers and Russian car manufacturers have stopped their production activities. This, consequently, forced their suppliers to do the same, as their input p...

Research Team
  • Research Team

The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: markets mostly up in July, amid a ...

EME Equity Market – July 2022 Market performance – markets mostly up during the month, but Russia’s MOEX down 9.4% in EUR terms. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 2.3% mom in EUR, but lost 0.5% mom in USD in July. The Greek ASE Index was the best performing benchmark, advancing 5.0% mom in EUR. Hungary’s benchmark, the BUX Index, added 4.4% mom and 6.5% mom in EUR and HUF terms, respectively. Romania’s BET Index gained 1.7% mom in EUR terms and 1.3% mom in local currency, while Turkey’s ISE20 added...

EUROB EUROBANK ERGASIAS SERVICES & HOLDINGS SA
GARAN TURKIYE GARANTI BANKASI ANONIM SIRKETI
JMT JERONIMO MARTINS SGPS S.A.
OPAP GREEK ORGANISATION OF FOOTBALL PROGNOSTICS SA
KRU KRUK S.A.
EXAE HELLENIC EXCHANGES SA
MOL MOL NYRT
YNDX YANDEX NV CLASS A
CEZ CEZ AS
CDR CD PROJEKT S.A.
YKBNK YAPI VE KREDI BANKASI A.S.
OMV OMV AG
PGN POLSKIE GORNICTWO NAFTOWE I GAZOWNICTWO SA
TITK TITAN CEMENT CO. SA
WIZZ WIZZ AIR HOLDINGS PLC
SPL SANTANDER BANK POLSKA SA
MIL BANK MILLENNIUM SA
FOYRK FOURLIS HOLDINGS S.A.
TPS ORANGE POLSKA S.A.
PKN POLSKI KONCERN NAFTOWY ORLEN S.A.
MYTIL MYTILINEOS S.A.
AKBNK AKBANK TAS
TENERGY TERNA ENERGY S.A.
BFT BENEFIT SYSTEMS S.A. ALLOTMENT
POLY POLYMETAL INTERNATIONAL PLC
LVC LIVECHAT SOFTWARE SA
CAR INTER CARS S.A.
ARCLK ARCELIK A.S.
FROTO FORD OTOMOTIV SANAYI A.S.
OTKAR OTOKAR OTOMOTIV VE SAVUNMA SANAYI A.S.
THYAO TURK HAVA YOLLARI A.O.
LTS GRUPA LOTOS S.A.
CPS CYFROWY POLSAT SA
DAT DATAWALK SA
OTOEL AUTOHELLAS S.A.
BANK OF CYPRUS PCL
WPL WIRTUALNA POLSKA HOLDING SA
BELA JUMBO S.A.
SAB1L SIAULIU BANKAS
KMB KOMERCIJALNA BANKA AD SKOPJE
TRP TERAPLAST
MONET MONETA MONEY BANK AS
ADPL-R-A AD PLASTIK D.D.
H4L1 HALYK SAVINGS BANK OF KAZAKHSTAN GDR
SNP PETROM S.A.
TOFAS TOFAS TURK OTOMOBIL FABRIKASI A.S.
PLZL POLYUS (GDR)
NBGGY NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE S.A. ADS
SNN SOCIETATEA NATIONALA NUCLEARELECTRICA SA
TEL C.N.T.E.E. TRANSELECTRICA
ELSA SOCIETATEA ENERGETICA ELECTRICA
FP. FONDUL PROPRIETATEA S.A. GDR (REG S)
ZB-R-A ZAGREBACKA BURZA DD
NLBR NLB GROUP
KAP NATIONAL ATOMIC COMPANY KAZATOMPROM
ARNT-R-A ARENATURIST D.D.
TEN TEN SQUARE GAMES
PEN PHOTON ENERGY NV
FINT MINING AND METALLURGICAL COMPANY NORILSK NICKEL (GDR)
ALG FINTEL ENERGIJA
KSPI ALLEGRO.EU SA
TNB KASPI KZ
HUGE NLB BANKA
ALR HUUUGE
IGN1L ALRO SLATINA
SHO IGNITIS GRUPE
PCO SHOPER
PINK PEPCO GROUP NV
KCEL PILULKA LEKARNY AS
GPP KCELL JSC
GRUPA PRACUJ DA
Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: MONET CP; SPL PW; SNP RO; OMV AV; OPL PW; AKBNK TI; ADPL Z...

HEADLINES: • MONETA Money Bank: solid 2Q22 results, 2022E guidance upgrade likely after 3Q22E • Santander Bank Polska: posts stellar adjusted profits in 2Q22, as NII doubles yoy POSITIVE • OMV Petrom: strong 2Q22 results, above our expectations, but in line with the consensus POSITIVE • OMV: 2Q22 results review - solid beat vs. consensus expectations POSITIVE • Orange Polska: 2Q22 results - EBITDAaL up 6% yoy, 2% above our estimate and the consensus POSITIVE • Akbank: 2Q22 highlights - guidanc...

Tea Pevec
  • Tea Pevec

AD Plastik Group: Profitability margins on a downtrend

In Q1 AD Plastik Group recorded a drop in sales revenue of 24% YoY. This is the result of the stoppage of production in Russia, as car manufacturers in that market have stopped their production activities because of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and economic uncertainty. The European factories of AD Plastik Group have been working according to plans, although due to the lack of semiconductors, the customers’ production capacities were reduced. In FY 2021, AD Plastik generated 27% of the tot...

Research Team
  • Research Team

The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: Turkish equities gain 13.3%, other...

EME Equity Market – April 2022 Market performance – regional benchmarks performance rather mixed in April. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 5.3% in EUR terms and by 9.9% in USD. The best-performing market was Turkey, whose equities gained 13.3% in EUR terms and 9.2% in local currency. Russia’s MOEX Index added 9.0% in EUR terms, but declined by 9.6% in local currency. In Greece, the ASE Index advanced by 4.9% in EUR terms, the last to end the month in the black; while Romania’s BET Index rec...

GARAN TURKIYE GARANTI BANKASI ANONIM SIRKETI
PEO BANK POLSKA KASA OPIEKI SA
KER KERNEL HOLDING S.A.
JMT JERONIMO MARTINS SGPS S.A.
OPAP GREEK ORGANISATION OF FOOTBALL PROGNOSTICS SA
KRU KRUK S.A.
TCELL TURKCELL ILETISIM HIZMETLERI A.S.
EBS ERSTE GROUP BANK AG
YNDX YANDEX NV CLASS A
CEZ CEZ AS
PETG PETROL D.D.
ACP ASSECO POLAND SA
CDR CD PROJEKT S.A.
YKBNK YAPI VE KREDI BANKASI A.S.
OMV OMV AG
PGN POLSKIE GORNICTWO NAFTOWE I GAZOWNICTWO SA
PKO PKO BANK POLSKI S.A.
ALK ALKALOID AD SKOPJE
WIZZ WIZZ AIR HOLDINGS PLC
PZU POWSZECHNY ZAKLAD UBEZPIECZEN SPOLKA AKCYJNA
SPL SANTANDER BANK POLSKA SA
MIL BANK MILLENNIUM SA
KTY GRUPA KETY SA
TPS ORANGE POLSKA S.A.
PKN POLSKI KONCERN NAFTOWY ORLEN S.A.
MYTIL MYTILINEOS S.A.
LPP LPP S.A.
SPI S IMMO AG
AKBNK AKBANK TAS
AEFES ANADOLU EFES BIRACILIK VE MALT SANAYII A.S.
ASELS ASELSAN ELEKTRONIK SANAYI VE TICARET A.S. CLASS B
CCC CCC SA
CCOLA COCA-COLA ICECEK A.S.
CIE CIECH S.A.
VESBE VESTEL BEYAZ ESYA SANAYI VE TICARET
AST ASTARTA HOLDING
GTC GLOBE TRADE CENTRE S.A.
EEG1T EKSPRESS GRUPP A.S.
TENERGY TERNA ENERGY S.A.
TTKOM TURK TELEKOMUNIKASYON A.S.
ENA ENEA S.A.
BFT BENEFIT SYSTEMS S.A. ALLOTMENT
PGE PGE POLSKA GRUPA ENERGETYCZNA S.A.
AFKS SISTEMA PJSFC
POLY POLYMETAL INTERNATIONAL PLC
LVC LIVECHAT SOFTWARE SA
TPEIR PIRAEUS BANK SA
PPC PUBLIC POWER CORPORATION S.A.
CAR INTER CARS S.A.
FROTO FORD OTOMOTIV SANAYI A.S.
OTKAR OTOKAR OTOMOTIV VE SAVUNMA SANAYI A.S.
TUPRS TURKIYE PETROL RAFINERILERI A.S.
EUR EUROCASH S.A.
FMF FAMUR SA
TKFEN TEKFEN HOLDING
CPS CYFROWY POLSAT SA
MAIL MAIL.RU GROUP LTD. SPONSORED GDR
GPW WARSAW STOCK EXCHANGE
11B 11 BIT STUDIOS S.A.
ALRS ALROSA PJSC
DAT DATAWALK SA
ALR ALIOR BANK SA
OTOEL AUTOHELLAS S.A.
HB HELLENIC BANK LTD.
WPL WIRTUALNA POLSKA HOLDING SA
BELA JUMBO S.A.
SAB1L SIAULIU BANKAS
TLV BANCA TRANSILVANIA S.A.
KMB KOMERCIJALNA BANKA AD SKOPJE
TRP TERAPLAST
MONET MONETA MONEY BANK AS
ADPL-R-A AD PLASTIK D.D.
BNET BITTNET SYSTEMS
SNP PETROM S.A.
PBK PATRIA BANK SA
TOFAS TOFAS TURK OTOMOBIL FABRIKASI A.S.
PLZL POLYUS (GDR)
OGZD GAZPROM (GDR)
DNP DINO POLSKA S.A.
COTE CONPET SA
SNN SOCIETATEA NATIONALA NUCLEARELECTRICA SA
TEL C.N.T.E.E. TRANSELECTRICA
ELSA SOCIETATEA ENERGETICA ELECTRICA
FP. FONDUL PROPRIETATEA S.A. GDR (REG S)
TGN SOCIETATEA NATIONALA DE TRANSPORT GAZE NATURALE TRANSGAZ S.A.
A4L ALLTERCO AD
IIA IMMOFINANZ AG
ZB-R-A ZAGREBACKA BURZA DD
ENJSA ENERJISA ENERJI
SF3 STS GROUP AG
KAP NATIONAL ATOMIC COMPANY KAZATOMPROM
TEN TEN SQUARE GAMES
MINING AND METALLURGICAL COMPANY NORILSK NICKEL (GDR)
ALG ALLEGRO.EU SA
KSPI KASPI KZ
TNB NLB BANKA
INPST INPOST S.A.
PCF PCF GROUP SA
HUGE HUUUGE
WINE PURCARI WINERIES PCL
SHO SHOPER
PCO PEPCO GROUP NV
KCEL KCELL JSC
Research Team
  • Research Team

WOOD Daily: PEO PW; MONET CP; AKBNK TI; THYAO TI; TOASO TI; TTKOM TI; ...

HEADLINES: • Bank Pekao: 1Q22 results review - strong beat vs. market's expectations • MONETA Money Bank: 1Q22 results review - in line with our expectations and 5% ahead of consensus • Akbank: 1Q22 results highlights - better than expected, due to trading • Turkish Airlines: 1Q22 yet another strong quarter, continued recovery of traffic and yield strength POSITIVE • Tofas: 1Q22 results - strong beat POSITIVE • Turk Telekom: 1Q22 - results in line, no guidance change NEUTRAL • Ford Otosan: 1...

Tea Pevec
  • Tea Pevec

AD Plastik Group: Another year, another profitability drag

In Q4 AD Plastik Group recorded a drop in sales revenue of 12.3% YoY. This is the result of a shortage in the supply of new cars on the market in FY 2021 due to disruptions in the supply of semiconductors. Producers have slowed down vehicle production, which has in turn negatively influenced the production of spare parts and sales of AD Plastik. Group’s Q4 sales revenues reported an increase of 47.6% compared to Q3, indicating a stabilization in the overall automobile sector. Also, Q4 2020 wa...

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