WOOD Flash – EMEA airlines: 3Q24 traffic, margin descent underway
The combination of continued capacity recovery and a weak macro backdrop is putting pressure on passenger yields. The more favourable fuel prices (and, for Turkish Airlines (THYAO), higher cargo yields) only partially compensate for cost pressures caused by the GTF engine issue, higher personnel costs, and general cost inflation. This means that margins are beginning to compress from the often very high levels we have seen in the past two-to-three years. Among the four airlines that we cover, we only see earnings growth at Pegasus Airlines, where we expect 3Q24E EBIT to rise 7% yoy, slightly trailing the 9% ASK growth. We expect the remaining three airlines (Aegean Airlines, THYAO and Wizz Air) to record EBIT 15-30% lower yoy in calendar 3Q24. THYAO flew 5% more ASK compared to 3Q23; Wizz Air’s ASK was up 1% yoy; and Aegean’s ASK was 4% lower, on the back of its exit from Animawings and GTF engine shop visits.Aegean Airlines is an airline carrier based in Greece. Co. is engaged in aviation transportation, providing services that concern the transportation of passengers and commodities in the sector of public aviation transportation inside and outside Greece, conducting scheduled and unscheduled flights. Co. provides full service, premium quality short and medium haul services. Co. maintains a network of 145 destinations, 111 international in 45 countries and 34 domestic destinations. Co. is a member of global airline network, the Star Alliance network.
Pegasus Hava Tasimaciligi is a low-cost airline group based in Turkey. Co. provides reasonably-priced transportation opportunities on point-to-point basis in short and medium range flight lines on its domestic and international network. Co. primarily provides transportation opportunities from its main hub in Istanbul Sabiha Gokcen International Airport, but also offers scheduled flights from other domestic hubs, primarily in Adana, Antalya and Izmir. Co.'s fleet is composed of 49 airplanes in total. Co.'s flight network consists of 76 locations (45 abroad and 31 domestic flight locations in 30 countries). Co. also provides cargo services and provides various training services.
Turk Hava Yollari is engaged in the airline industry with the airline flying to 103 destinations, throughout Turkey and internationally. As of the year end, Co. maintains 66 aircrafts with a total seat capacity of 10,672, and leases a A300-200 cargo aircraft. Co. has various services for their customers which include: various ways of checking in and on-line ticket sales.
Wizz Air Holding is a European airline. As of Mar 31 2017, Co. provided more than 500 routes from 28 bases, connecting 141 destinations across 42 countries. Co. has two reportable segments: the airline and the tour operator business units, marketed under the Wizz Air and Wizz Tours brand names, respectively. Wizz Air sells flight tickets and related services to external customers and, to an extent, to Wizz Tours. Wizz Tours sells travel packages to external customers covering the network of Wizz Air.
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