Asseco Poland: unjustifiably expensive (downgraded to SELL)
We have downgraded Asseco Poland (ACP) to SELL (from Hold) and increased our price target (PT) to PLN 130.5 (from PLN 102.5), implying 32% downside potential. ACP’s stock price has rallied over 100% ytd, driven primarily by the sale of its treasury shares to Constellation Software, a strategic investor with an impressively strong M&A track record, which has drawn the attention of a new group of investors to Asseco Poland, we believe. However, we see very limited synergies (which, given no consolidation, are based mainly on know-how exchange, in our view), and a further increase in the new investor’s stake in ACP as rather unlikely. Therefore, we see Asseco’s current valuation as unjustifiably expensive – on our forecasts, the company is trading at 2025-26E P/Es of 27.1-22.8x, at 34-51% premiums vs. its peers’ medians.Asseco Poland is a provider of proprietary information technology ("IT") solutions which is based in Poland. Co. is engaged in provision of consulting on IT infrastructure, security solutions, human resources solutions, outsourcing services as well as fully comprehensive IT support. Co.'s profile includes software and computer hardware consultancy, production of software as well as supply of software and hardware. This category includes analysing, developing, and programming ready-to-use IT systems. In addition to IT services, Co. also sells goods including mainly computer hardware.
WOOD & Company is the leading investment bank in Emerging Europe. Founded in 1991 and head-quartered in Prague, our footprint spans the region and touches investors around the globe.
A pioneer in Emerging Europe, WOOD executed many of the first CEE equity trades and landmark investment banking transactions. Our electronic trading platform was the first in the region, and remains the best. We are continually expanding our relevance and reach in these ever-evolving markets.
Our equity market share reflects our stature: 7% in Warsaw, 20% in Bucharest, 16% in Hungary, 40% in Prague and 5% in Vienna. Our distribution is unparalleled, with the largest salesforce in the region, servicing a uniquely diverse investor base.
We couple local expertise with a truly international perspective. With offices on the ground in the region, and in key financial hubs such as London and Milano, we are never far from our clients and we remain at the forefront of what’s afoot in the CEE emerging and frontier landscape.
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