HEADLINES: • mBank: revises up 1Q24 FX mortgage saga costs NEUTRAL • GEVORKYAN: 4Q23 results broadly in line; new contracts from Poland and Sweden NEUTRAL • DataWalk: preliminary 1Q24 results – sales up 100% yoy, to PLN 6.43m POSITIVE • DataWalk: key takeaways from the 1Q24 preliminary earnings call POSITIVE • Wirtualna Polska: real users in April 2024 NEUTRAL • Wirtualna Polska: 1Q24E preview – 9% yoy adjusted EBITDA growth expected (due on 21 May) • Grupa Pracuj: 1Q24E results preview – flat y...
A director at Asseco Poland S.A. bought 6,944 shares at 78.970PLN and the significance rating of the trade was 63/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years cle...
EME Equity Market – March 2024 Market performance – mixed performances in March, with the Romanian BET outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 0.3% mom in EUR terms and 0.4% mom in USD in March. The Romanian BET reported the strongest performance, adding 7.1% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Czech PX and the Polish WIG20 (+4.1% and 1.0% mom, in EUR terms, respectively). Greece saw a relatively muted performance (-0.2% mom in EUR terms), while Hungary (-1.1% mom in EUR terms) and Tür...
HEADLINES: • CD Projekt: 13% beat vs. our 4Q23 EBITDA forecast, on stronger revenues (CP77 IP) POSITIVE • Al Arabia Outdoor Advertising: mixed 4Q23 results NEUTRAL • Cimsa: 2023 financial results review • Tauron: reports 4Q23 EBITDA of PLN 674m , 44% lower qoq, but 83% higher yoy NEUTRAL • Asseco Poland: key takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • Romanian energy: government adopts emergency ordinance, with amended regulations for the energy sector NEUTRAL • Bank of Georgia: receives app...
HEADLINES: • InPost: 4Q23 strong, as expected; neutral FY24E guidance; volume acceleration in 1Q24 NEUTRAL • Asseco Poland: 4Q23 review – net profit up 10% yoy, in line with preliminaries; strong 2024 backlog recorded POSITIVE • Echo Investment: 4Q23 – residential good, offices bad NEUTRAL • Athens Exchange Group: 4Q23 results NEUTRAL • LPP: key takeaways from the conference call on the exit from Russia, 2.0 POSITIVE • Kruk: 2023 net profit DPS proposal of PLN 18, in line with our expectations N...
HEADLINES: • Air Astana Group: a cash-accretive airline from the heart of Eurasia (BUY - initiation of coverage) • Elm: still a digital champion (stays HOLD) • PZU: reports solid 4Q23; high DPS potential POSITIVE • CEZ: misses on 4Q23 net profit, tepid 2024E guidance NEGATIVE • Benefit Systems: strong 4Q23 beats expectations, but company trims 2024E guidance for card additions abroad NEUTRAL • Teknosa: mixed results in 4Q23 NEGATIVE • CA Immo: 4Q23 – all about the disposals POSITIVE • Brisa: 4Q2...
HEADLINES: • OMV: Chemical Brothers (stays BUY) • Pegasus Airlines: 4Q23 – decent end to another stellar year NEUTRAL • Tupras: FY23 results, using inflation accounting POSITIVE • AROBS Transilvania Software: FY23 results – awaiting the calming of IT spending headwinds NEUTRAL • Sipchem: 4Q23 interim results NEGATIVE • Telecom Egypt: key takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • Tofas: proposes distribution of a DPS of TRY 20 NEUTRAL • 11 bit studios: strong player reviews of The Thaumatur...
EME Equity Market – January 2024 Market performance – Turkey off to the races in January. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 4.2% mom in EUR terms and 2.2% mom in USD in the first month of the year. There was a V-shape recovery in the Turkish ISE30, with the index adding 12.6% mom in EUR terms. The Greek ASE and Hungarian BUX indices also reported strong performances, adding 5.7% and 5.3% mom, respectively, in EUR terms. The Czech PX Index advanced by 2.2% mom, while the Romanian BET 0.9% mom in EUR...
HEADLINES: • European oil and gas monthly: December 2023 – temperatures, inventories and gas prices fall • Text: key takeaways from the preliminary 3Q23-24 earnings call NEUTRAL • CEZ: FinMin says cancellation of WFT for 2025 is "a debate" NEUTRAL • VIGO Photonics: key takeaways from an interview with the CFO NEUTRAL • Asseco Poland: key takeaways from an interview with the CFO NEUTRAL • CD Projekt: over 5m Phantom Liberty copies sold last year POSITIVE • Turkish automotive: ADA releases Decembe...
HEADLINES: • Poland macro: NBP extends wait-and-see stance • Greece macro: GDP underperforms in 3Q • WOOD's Winter Wonderland EME Conference 2023: postcards from Prague • Georgia Capital: postcard from Prague • Mytilineos: postcard from Prague • Sarantis: postcard from Prague • Richter: postcard from Prague • 11 bit studios: postcard from Prague • Asseco Poland: postcard from Prague • Benefit Systems: postcard from Prague • Orange Polska: postcard from Prague • Shoper: postcard from Pr...
EME Equity Market – November 2023 Market performance – Greeks in the lead, in a month with only green across the region. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 5.6% mom in EUR terms and 8.7% mom in USD in November. The Greek ASE Index was the top performer in our region (+6.9% mom), followed by the Polish WIG20 (+5.5% mom) and the Hungarian BUX (+4.0% mom). The Czech PX Index saw the most muted performance, advancing 2.8% mom.
HEADLINES: • Asseco Poland: key takeaways from the 3Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • Asseco Poland: wants to sell 17.84% own stake to financial investors NEUTRAL • Aegean Airlines: update on the GTF issue POSITIVE • PCF Group: strategic discussions on Project Gemini and works on review of development plans NEGATIVE • Polish banks: PFSA unlikely to change dividend guidance for banks for 2024E • Polish utilities: Polish coal prices could drop by c.40% in 2024 POSITIVE • Budimex: PLN 199m appendix to t...
HEADLINES: • Ilirija d.d.: good times by the sea are back (NOT RATED) • Colt CZ Group SE: 3Q23 miss and Vista bid NEGATIVE • Asseco Poland: 3Q23 review - net profit down 11% yoy, 1% above preliminaries NEUTRAL • Turkey macro: CBT approaching the end of the tightening cycle • Grupa Pracuj: key takeaways from the 3Q23 earnings call POSITIVE • Huuuge Games: takeaways - solid short-term earnings outlook maintained, but more litigation recently NEUTRAL • Motor Oil Hellas: strategy update POSITIVE ...
EME Equity Market – October 2023 Market performance – election results prompt stellar market reaction in Poland; sell-off in Turkey. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 1.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.0% mom in USD in October. Poland staged a massive rebound, post the elections, with the WIG20 advancing 16.4% mom in EUR terms. Apart from Turkey, where October was a sell-off, with the ISE30 declining 13.7% mom in EUR terms, there were relatively muted performances everywhere else (BUX +2.1% / PX +0.4% / B...
HEADLINES: • Erste Bank: posts solid 3Q23 - beat on higher and strong quality mix of revenues POSITIVE • Budimex: strong 3Q23 results, EBIT 13% above our forecast, despite negative one-offs POSITIVE • Asseco Poland: 3Q23 preliminary net profit of PLN 112m, 3% above the consensus POSITIVE • Romania macro: fiscal package law published and now in force • OMV Petrom/Romgaz: Government raises royalties; change to affect new & renewed concession agreements NEUTRAL • Borouge: 3Q23 results - EBITDA be...
HEADLINES: • Benefit Systems: 2024E targets for net additions in sports cards 9-12% above our model assumptions POSITIVE • Fondul Proprietatea: NAV per share at end-September up 1.8% mom NEUTRAL • Wirtualna Polska: Media Development Investment Fund purchases 0.2% stake NEUTRAL • Grupa Pracuj: new online job ads down 18% yoy in September NEGATIVE • Alior Bank: 3Q23E preview (due on 26 October) • Bank Millennium: 3Q23E preview (due on 27 October) • mBank: 3Q23E preview (due on 31 October) • Ass...
HEADLINES: • Turkish food retailers: onwards and upwards (BIM and Migros and Sok Marketler stay BUY) • Asseco Poland: profitability rebound ahead (stays BUY) • Romania macro: NBR on hold, as expected • CD Projekt: 3m Phantom Liberty copies sold in first week, but budget exceeds our assumptions POSITIVE • Huuuge Games: 3Q23 bookings up 5% qoq POSITIVE • Ten Square Games: 3Q23 bookings recover 9% qoq POSITIVE • NEPI Rockcastle: Fortress (24% owner of NRP) may distribute NRP's shares to its shar...
We reiterate our BUY rating on Asseco Poland and cut our price target (PT) to PLN 103.0 (from PLN 112.3), implying 41% upside potential. Our PT is based on the weighted average of our DCF (implying a PT of PLN 97.0/share) and our comparative valuation (implying a PT of PLN 121.2/share). ACP’s stock price has underperformed the market heavily, with the company recording a results deceleration due to the macro uncertainty harming the demand for IT products, and inflationary pressure on the opex. H...
HEADLINES: • Bank Millennium: to book PLN 673m of FX mortgage saga costs in 3Q23E NEUTRAL • Poland macro: NBP continues with the easing cycle • Iceland macro: Sedlabanki on a hawkish pause • Orlen: awarded licences for five Baltic Sea windfarms • Orlen: commissions biodiesel plant • Cyfrowy Polsat: repurchases 50% stakes in Port Praski City II and Port Praski Medical Center NEUTRAL • Asseco Poland: CEO purchases ACP shares worth PLN 8.86m POSITIVE • 4iG: signs MoU for construction of submar...
EME Equity Market – September 2023 Market performance – positive developments in Romania and Turkey, declines everywhere else. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 3.7% mom in EUR terms and 6.0% mom in USD in September. Romania took the spotlight, with the BET Index advancing 7.4% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Turkish ISE30 (+4.6% mom). The Polish WIG20 declined the most (-8.7% mom), followed by the Greek ASE, the Hungarian BUX and, finally, the Czech PX (-7.9%, -1.9% and -0.6% mom, respectively).
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