Report
Jonathan Lamb ...
  • Ondrej Slama

European Oil and Gas Monthly: March 2023

Oil prices trended lower in March, on demand worries, and a major OPEC announcement at the beginning of April only brought them back to early March levels. Refining margins improved, with petrol cracks increasing more than diesel, but fuel oil improving the most. Petrochemicals margins showed slight signs of improvement but remain low. Oil demand for the EU looks weak. TTF gas prices seem to be following normal seasonal trends in 2023, even if the prices, themselves, are double the normal level. The Asian Japan-Korea market (JKM) gas prices are following suit, which we believe could increase demand in Asia. Gas withdrawals from inventory were less than usual and storage was 56% full at the end of the month. Mild weather was once again a helpful factor, joined by better wind conditions in March. Although refining margins have improved, the outlook for refiners is still muted, with Motor Oil Hellas (10% upside) and HELLENIQ Energy (7% upside) looking less than exciting. MOL (38% upside) and PKN Orlen (39% upside) continue to appear more attractive, while OMV (23% upside) would be a beneficiary of better petrochemical margins.
Underlyings
Autohellas S.A.

Autohellas is a Hertz national franchisee. Co. is engaged in the rent-a-car segment, comprising of renting (short-term lease) and fleet management (long-term lease and fleet management) in Greece, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Romania, Serbia and Montenegro. Renting covers the needs of both individuals and companies for occasional, small duration rentals up to 1 year long.

MOL Nyrt

OMV AG

OMV is an international energy company with activities in Exploration and Production (E&P), Refining and Marketing including petrochemicals (R&M), and Gas and Power (G&P). Co. explores and develops oil and gas resources and supply energy to over 100 million people. OMV has three operating segments: Exploration and Production (E&P), Refining and Marketing, including petrochemicals (R&M), and Gas and Power (G&P), as well as the segment Corporate and Other (Co&O).

Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN S.A.

Polski Koncern Naftowy Orlen's activities are divided into three main business segments: the Refining Segment that comprises crude oil processing as well as wholesale and retail trade in refinery products. The Petrochemical Segment that encompasses production and sale of petrochemicals and chemicals. The Retail Segment that comprises of sales at petrol stations. Co.'s basic products include gasolines, diesel oils, light heating oil, Jet fuel, liquid gas, polyetylene, polypropylene, benzene, butadiene, acetone, phenol, glycols, toluen, ortoxylene.

Provider
Wood and Company
Wood and Company

WOOD & Company is the leading investment bank in Emerging Europe. Founded in 1991 and head-quartered in Prague, our footprint spans the region and touches investors around the globe.

A pioneer in Emerging Europe, WOOD executed many of the first CEE equity trades and landmark investment banking transactions. Our electronic trading platform was the first in the region, and remains the best. We are continually expanding our relevance and reach in these ever-evolving markets.

Our equity market share reflects our stature: 7% in Warsaw, 20% in Bucharest, 16% in Hungary, 40% in Prague and 5% in Vienna. Our distribution is unparalleled, with the largest salesforce in the region, servicing a uniquely diverse investor base.

We couple local expertise with a truly international perspective. With offices on the ground in the region, and in key financial hubs such as London and Milano, we are never far from our clients and we remain at the forefront of what’s afoot in the CEE emerging and frontier landscape.

Analysts
Jonathan Lamb

Ondrej Slama

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