WOOD Flash – Lamda Development: 3Q25 - malls and marinas steady, bond and land sale to boost liquidity

Lamda’s 3Q25 results show a steady contribution from the existing malls and marinas. Gross profit generated by the Ellinikon was weak in 3Q25, with the margin likely weighed down by the Riviera Tower. Capex for the Ellinikon projects slightly exceeded EUR 100m in 3Q25, with a further material acceleration expected in 4Q25E, according to the guidance. The recent EUR 500m bond placement (3.8% yield) and the ION land sale (expected to close in 2026E) should provide a meaningful boost to liquidity. With demand for the apartments released to date apparently healthy, the key uncertainties remain execution and overall costs, not only at the project level but also across the broader infrastructure. These questions are likely to persist for some time. That said, the land sales agreed to date de-risk the project materially, in our view, while bringing forward cash inflows to Lamda. Assuming c.EUR 0.6bn of equity value attributable to the existing malls and c.EUR 0.2bn to the marinas, the current share price implies only around EUR 0.4-0.5bn for the entire Ellinikon project, including the two Ellinikon malls. This appears to be conservative, reflected in the 23% discount to the EUR 9.2/share NAV, and also seen in the context of prices achieved on plots sold to date. Timely and on-budget execution of the first-phase projects could drive meaningful upside, in our view, particularly if opex moderates. That said, the limited visibility on costs and the significant complexity of the equity story are likely to continue to have implications on the valuation of the shares.