WOOD Flash – Bank Millennium: ambitious, but achievable, 2025-28E strategy implies a return to growth and more of a focus on the corporate segment

Millennium has published its 2025-28E strategic targets, with a 2028E reported ROE of a minimum of 18%. Our current explicit forecasts for Bank Millennium end in 2026E and imply a headline ROE of 15.5% and an adjusted ROE of 20.7%, with headline 2026E net profit of PLN 1.44bn and adjusted net profit of PLN 1.94bn. It is hard to compare our current forecasts with the bank’s targets, which reach out two years ahead, but we believe that our 2024-26E forecasts lay out a sensible path to achieving a 2028E ROE of 18% and do, in general, outline positive momentum in Bank Millennium’s growth and high profitability in the medium term, while remaining on the conservative side. We see Bank Millennium’s 2028E net profit and ROE targets as positive vs. our current forecasts, as we suspect that the bank may be eyeing PLN 2.4-2.5bn of net profit in 2028E. In our view, this is an ambitious, but achievable target. Bank Millennium has also flagged the restoration of dividend payments from its 2026E net profit (payment due in 2027E), in line with our current forecasts, which assume a 50% payout ratio from the 2026E net profit.