EME Equity Market – October 2024 A red October for the EME indices, only Czechia in positive territory. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 6.0% in EUR terms and 8.4% in USD terms in October. The Czech PX index was the only one spared, adding 1.3% mom in EUR terms. Türkiye was battered the most, with the Turkish ISE30 declining by 7.3% mom in EUR terms, followed closely by the Polish WIG20 (-6.7% mom in EUR terms). Greece fell 4.8% mom in EUR terms, while the Hungarian BUX index lost 2.7% mom i...
HEADLINES: • Bank Millennium: ambitious, but achievable, 2025-28E strategy implies a return to growth and more of a focus on the corporate segment POSITIVE • Bank Millennium: 3Q24 results in line; key focus on 2025-28E strategic update • Santander Bank Polska: posts solid 3Q24 profits, as NII peaks and FX mortgage saga costs are very low for the quarter • OMV: 3Q24 results – CCS EBIT in line with the consensus NEUTRAL • OMV Petrom: 3Q24 results in line with consensus NEUTRAL • Budimex: key takea...
Millennium has published its 2025-28E strategic targets, with a 2028E reported ROE of a minimum of 18%. Our current explicit forecasts for Bank Millennium end in 2026E and imply a headline ROE of 15.5% and an adjusted ROE of 20.7%, with headline 2026E net profit of PLN 1.44bn and adjusted net profit of PLN 1.94bn. It is hard to compare our current forecasts with the bank’s targets, which reach out two years ahead, but we believe that our 2024-26E forecasts lay out a sensible path to achieving a ...
HEADLINES: • Aselsan: 3Q24 results – top-down small beat POSITIVE • Kety: wants to increase its share in the French market NEUTRAL • Kazatomprom: EGM announced to ratify a Chinese contract NEUTRAL • Shoper: 24% yoy growth expected in 3Q24E adjusted EBITDA (due on 24 October) • Bank Millennium: 3Q24E preview (due on 29 October) • Bank Handlowy: 3Q24E preview (due on 13 November) • Vercom: 3Q24E results preview – 29% yoy adjusted EBITDA growth (due on 13 November) • CD Projekt: 3Q24E EBITDA up 35%...
HEADLINES: • CCC: Shaq attaq (stays BUY) • Text: 2Q24-25 (calendar 3Q24) preliminary results - MRR of USD 7.04m (-0.4% qoq, +8.8% yoy) NEGATIVE • Dom Development: strong sales performance in 3Q24 POSITIVE • Bank Millennium: to set aside PLN 470m of FX mortgage provisions in 3Q24E, cost of credit holidays lower NEUTRAL • Poland macro: NBP extends the pause • GEVORKYAN: EUR 31m long-term contract in the defence industry xx POSITIVE • Cimsa: completes the acquisition of Mannok DAC POSITIVE • Dino P...
The lower supply pressure and turning interest rate cycle have helped CEE bank bonds outperform this year, particularly in the unsecured segment. The relative value metrics of CEE bank bonds remain enticing though versus European comparables, from a bank fundamental and instrument rating angle. We expect to see a further outperformance of CEE names.
EME Equity Market – July 2024 Greece the biggest winner, while Poland the clear loser in July. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 1.1% in EUR terms and 0.3% in USD terms in July. The Greek ASE Index posted the best performance for the month, advancing by 5.3% mom in EUR terms. There was a broadly similar performance in Hungary, Czechia and Romania (+ 2.9%, 2.7% and 2.1% mom in EUR terms, respectively). The Turkish ISE30 Index declined by 1.6% mom in EUR terms, but the clear loser was the Polis...
HEADLINES: • Bank Millennium: 2Q24 – big beat on headline profit, underlying results largely in line NEUTRAL • Budimex: preliminary 2Q24 EBIT in line with our expectations NEUTRAL • EMEA airlines: 2Q24 traffic; summertime sadness • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (22-28 July) • Text: secures new (fifth) patent in the US POSITIVE • Arcelik: change of CFO NEUTRAL • Greek banks: 2Q24E previews (reporting season starts on 31 July) POSITIVE • Wirtualna Polska: 2Q24E preview – flat adjusted EBITD...
HEADLINES: • Shoper: shifting into a higher gear (upgraded to BUY) • PZU: AGM due to be reconvened on 18 July NEGATIVE • NLB Group: Addiko takeover offer increased to EUR 22.0/share NEUTRAL • ADNOC Drilling: Enersol JV to make new acquisition NEUTRAL • Bank Millennium: 2Q24E preview (due on 26 July, after the close) • Benefit Systems: 2Q24E adjusted EBITDA up 23% yoy, headlines affected by PLN 45m ESOP cost (due on 21 August)
HEADLINES: • Poland macro: NBP on a protracted hold • NEPI Rockcastle: sells Promenada Novi Sad in Serbia for EUR 177m POSITIVE • Text: key takeaways from the 1Q24-25 preliminary earnings call POSITIVE • Bank Millennium: to book PLN 518m of FX mortgage saga provisions in 2Q24E NEUTRAL • Auto Partner: June sales growth at 11% yoy, below our expectations NEGATIVE • Polish telecoms: mobile number portability in 2Q24 NEUTRAL • Elm: announces resignation of CEO and new CEO appointment NEUTRAL • Greek...
EME Equity Market – June 2024 Another positive month for most of the EME indices, with the Hungarian BUX Index outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index rose by 1.0% in EUR terms, but declined -0.2% in USD terms in June. The Hungarian BUX index reported the strongest performance, adding 4.8% in EUR terms, followed by the Romanian BET and the Polish WIG20 (+3.7% and 2.1%, in EUR terms, respectively), and the Turkish ISE30 (+0.9% in EUR terms). Greece and the Czech Republic were in negative territor...
HEADLINES: • OMV Petrom: strategy update • Richter: acquires Belgian BCI Pharma to identify WHC preclinical drug candidates • Bank Millennium: ends repair programme • Kruk: announces a portfolio purchase in Spain • PCF Group: Project Gemini plan agreed and content rider concluded • 11 bit studios: Creatures of Ava to be released on 7 August • Short News (ALR, PKO BP, MTELEKOM)
EME Equity Market – May 2024 Turkish equities lead, in the mostly green month of May. The MSCI EM Europe Index rose by 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 1.8% mom in LCU terms in May. The Turkish ISE30 index reported the strongest performance, adding 3.6% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Romanian BET and the Czech PX (+2.7% and 2.1% mom in EUR terms, respectively). The Hungarian BUX index and the Polish WIG20 remained broadly flat (+0.4% and +0.2% mom in EUR terms, respectively); although, in LCU terms,...
HEADLINES: • mBank: solid 1Q24 results justify one of the top market valuations (1Q24 P/BV of 2.1x) POSITIVE • OTP Bank: books solid 1Q24, keeps 2024E guidance unchanged NEUTRAL • Bank Millennium: 1Q24 results in line • CCC: 40% EBITDA beat in 1Q24, on opex control POSITIVE • Dino: 2-7% EBITDA miss in 1Q24 NEGATIVE • AmRest: 1Q24 broadly in line with our forecasts, but below the consensus NEGATIVE • MOL: 1Q24 results – EBITDA below expectations on maintenance NEUTRAL • MedLife: 1Q24 results poin...
HEADLINES: • Budimex: 1Q24 EBIT 13% above our forecast on solid gross margin, but broadly in line with the consensus POSITIVE • European oil and gas monthly: April 2024 – margins retreating • Bank Handlowy: to pay PLN 10/share dividend NEUTRAL • PKO BP: estimates cost of credit holidays extension at PLN 489m NEUTRAL • Bank Millennium: expects a PLN 201-247m impact from the 2024E credit holidays extension for PLN mortgagors NEUTRAL • Inter Cars: April sales recover by 19.5% yoy POSITIVE • MOL: 1Q...
EME Equity Market – April 2024 Market performance – green across all geographies, with Turkey outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index was up 5.3% mom in EUR terms and 4.2% mom in USD in April; while the Turkish ISE30 saw the strongest performance, adding 11.6% mom; followed by the Hungarian BUX (+5.0% mom); the Czech PX (+2.8% mom); the Greek ASE (+1.8% mom), the Polish WIG20 (+1.2% mom) and the Romanian BET (+0.1% mom) (all in EUR terms).
Moody's Ratings ("Moody's") has today affirmed Bank Millennium S.A.'s (BM) Baa3/P-3 long- and short-term deposit ratings and changed the outlook on the long-term deposit ratings to positive from negative. Further, Moody's affirmed the bank's ba3 Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA) and ba2 Adjusted BCA,...
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