Turkish Food Retailers: onwards and upwards (BIM and Migros and Sok Marketler stay BUY)
We have a positive view of the Turkish food retailers, as we anticipate that sustained revenue growth, due mainly to the high inflationary effects, and a margin recovery will be the primary drivers in 2H23E and 2024E. Despite the challenges in 1H23, due to high wage costs and the high base of 1H22; we anticipate a sharp margin recovery in 2H23E, thanks to the operating leverage effect and the elimination of one-off expenses, and expect the recovery to continue in 2024E, but at a slower pace. We expect revenues to grow by 70% in 2024E, after 86% yoy growth in 2023E, with the EBITDA margin increasing by 37bps yoy, to 7.5%, and net earnings growing by 79% yoy in 2024E. We see room for increases in the consensus revenue estimates, as they indicate a relatively benign inflation outlook. Valuation-wise, the current valuations of the Turkish food retailers, 8.6x 2024E P/E and 4.8x 2024E EV/EBITDA, on our estimates, indicate a significant discount to the EM food retailers, which we attribute to the high inflation and the still elevated risk perception of Turkey.Bim Birlesik Magazalar is engaged in operating retail stores through its retail shops throughout Turkey, which sell an assortment of approx. 600 items, including a number of private labels. Co.'s object is to offer consumers basic food items and consumer goods at discount prices with quality. Co.'s private labels provides its consumers with quality tasting sausage, salami and similar meat products while at the same time being suitable to the consumers family budget. Products include meat products, breakfast and dairy products, beverages, legumes and bakery, snacks and sweets, fruits and vegetables, frozen foods, and non-food items - cleaning supplies.
Migros Ticaret is a retailing group based in Turkey. Co. offers spacious stores in a wide range of formats and locations whose vast selection of stationery, glass and kitchenware, appliance, book, clothing, and other items along with groceries and other necessities. Co. maintains a store network of 1,004 national and international locations with a national presence in 70 provinces in Turkey's seven geographical regions. Store brand names include M, MM, MMM, 5M, MigroJet, Tansas, Macrocenter and Ramstores. Co. also provides customers alternatives such as internet, call centers, kiosks, catalogues, and mobile shopping networks.
Sok Marketler Ticaret AS. Sok Marketler Ticaret AS, located in Istanbul, Turkey, owns and operates grocery stores. It sells Amigo, Crown, Deren, Evin, Karmen, Lio, Peki, Piyale and Tempo brands. The Company was founded in 1995.
WOOD & Company is the leading investment bank in Emerging Europe. Founded in 1991 and head-quartered in Prague, our footprint spans the region and touches investors around the globe.
A pioneer in Emerging Europe, WOOD executed many of the first CEE equity trades and landmark investment banking transactions. Our electronic trading platform was the first in the region, and remains the best. We are continually expanding our relevance and reach in these ever-evolving markets.
Our equity market share reflects our stature: 7% in Warsaw, 20% in Bucharest, 16% in Hungary, 40% in Prague and 5% in Vienna. Our distribution is unparalleled, with the largest salesforce in the region, servicing a uniquely diverse investor base.
We couple local expertise with a truly international perspective. With offices on the ground in the region, and in key financial hubs such as London and Milano, we are never far from our clients and we remain at the forefront of what’s afoot in the CEE emerging and frontier landscape.
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