HEADLINES: • CEZ: 1Q24 – strong beat on supply and generation POSITIVE • Eurocash: weak 1Q24 across the board NEGATIVE • BIM: 4Q23 results – strong beat POSITIVE • Richter: 1Q24 operations in line, net beat on FX revaluation NEUTRAL • Arabian Drilling: 1Q24 interim results – net income below expectations NEUTRAL • CE4/Greece macro: the consumption recovery – pivoting from necessities to discretionary • Türkiye macro: our takes from our Symposium; a focus on Coca-Cola Icecek, Tupras, and Aselsan ...
EME Equity Market – April 2024 Market performance – green across all geographies, with Turkey outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index was up 5.3% mom in EUR terms and 4.2% mom in USD in April; while the Turkish ISE30 saw the strongest performance, adding 11.6% mom; followed by the Hungarian BUX (+5.0% mom); the Czech PX (+2.8% mom); the Greek ASE (+1.8% mom), the Polish WIG20 (+1.2% mom) and the Romanian BET (+0.1% mom) (all in EUR terms).
HEADLINES: • Sok Marketler: weak performance in the 4Q23 results • Inter Cars: targets 15-17% yoy revenue growth this year • Polish telecoms: telecommunications fee to grow from 0.05% of sales to 0.15% sales • Polish media: CPS audience share at 21.53%, WP TV at 0.61% in March 2024 • OMV Petrom: 1Q24E results preview (due out 30 April)
EME Equity Market – March 2024 Market performance – mixed performances in March, with the Romanian BET outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 0.3% mom in EUR terms and 0.4% mom in USD in March. The Romanian BET reported the strongest performance, adding 7.1% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Czech PX and the Polish WIG20 (+4.1% and 1.0% mom, in EUR terms, respectively). Greece saw a relatively muted performance (-0.2% mom in EUR terms), while Hungary (-1.1% mom in EUR terms) and Tür...
HEADLINES: • Polish Banks: not done yet (PKO BP, Bank Pekao, Santander BP, mBank, ING BSK, Bank Millennium, Alior Bank, Bank Handlowy) • Kazatomprom: digging the margins (stays BUY) • Jahez: mixed 2023 financial results NEUTRAL • BRD-GSG: publishes 2024 budget NEUTRAL • Migros: BoD to propose DPS of TRY 6.904 NEUTRAL • Short News (M, BRISA)
EME Equity Market – February 2024 Market performance – a positive February, with the Polish WIG20 outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 4.2% mom in EUR terms and 3.7% mom in USD in February. The Polish WIG20 saw the strongest performance, adding 6.4% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Greek ASE (+4.2% mom), the Turkish ISE30 (+4.0% mom) and the Romanian BET (+2.6% mom) (all in EUR terms). There was a relatively muted performance in Hungary (+0.6% mom in EUR terms) and a decline in the Cze...
HEADLINES: • CCC: the boys are back in town (stays BUY) • Bank Pekao: solid 2023 profits, generous PLN 19.2/share dividend, market waiting for AGM date POSITIVE • Orlen: 4Q23 results – CCS EBITDA in line NEUTRAL • Solutions by STC: key takeaways from the 4Q23 conference call NEUTRAL • Alior Bank: potential to pay out up to 50% of its 2023 net profit as a dividend NEUTRAL • PKO BP: PFSA guides for maximum dividend payout • Polish banks: mBank, ING BSK and Santander BP receive dividend letters fro...
HEADLINES: • WOOD's Winter Wonderland EME Conference 2023: postcards from Prague • CEZ: postcard from Prague • Colt CZ Group SE: postcard from Prague • Eurowag: postcard from Prague • Pilulka Lekarny: postcard from Prague • Athens Exchange Group: postcard from Prague • Elbit Systems: postcard from Prague • Siauliu Bankas: postcard from Prague • Budimex: postcard from Prague • CD Projekt: postcard from Prague • Cyber_folks: postcard from Prague • Cyfrowy Polsat: postcard from Prague ...
EME Equity Market – November 2023 Market performance – Greeks in the lead, in a month with only green across the region. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 5.6% mom in EUR terms and 8.7% mom in USD in November. The Greek ASE Index was the top performer in our region (+6.9% mom), followed by the Polish WIG20 (+5.5% mom) and the Hungarian BUX (+4.0% mom). The Czech PX Index saw the most muted performance, advancing 2.8% mom.
HEADLINES: • Teknosa: good things come in small packages (BUY - initiation of coverage) • OTP Bank: beats expectations with 3Q23 delivery • Bank Handlowy: solid 3Q23, DPS feasible and attractive, still a reason to own the stock NEUTRAL • Eurocash: 3Q23 beat on costs POSITIVE • Dogus Otomotiv: strong bottom-line beat in 3Q23 POSITIVE • Ulker: 3Q23 results - strong beat POSITIVE • Sok Marketler Ticaret: 3Q23 in line operationally, strong bottom-line beat on deferred tax income NEUTRAL • Public P...
HEADLINES: • Bank Pekao: 3Q23 results solid as a rock, 25%+ ROE remains, high dividend yield possible POSITIVE • BIM: strong set of results in 3Q23 financials, beating expectations POSITIVE • Richter: 3Q23 EBITDA in line; guidance raised on strong Vraylar POSITIVE • Petkim: 3Q23 results • Eurobank: 3Q23 results • National Bank: 3Q23 results • Addiko Bank: 3Q23 results - bottom-line beat POSITIVE • Transgaz: no approval from EC for EUR 500m grants for non-priority projects NEUTRAL • Auto Par...
HEADLINES: • Logo Yazilim: clearer skies in 2024E (stays BUY) • Turkish Airlines: 3Q23 - even better summer than last year POSITIVE • Brisa: solid 3Q23 results, on gross margin expansion and low CIT NEUTRAL • Migros: strong beat in the 3Q23 financials POSITIVE • ING BSK: posts solid 3Q23 results, but largely in line with its peers NEUTRAL • Verbund: 3Q23 results above our estimates • Alkaloid: 3Q revenues growth normalises, 4Q shaping up nicely NEUTRAL • EME Macro/Strategy: US - Fed stays on h...
EME Equity Market – October 2023 Market performance – election results prompt stellar market reaction in Poland; sell-off in Turkey. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 1.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.0% mom in USD in October. Poland staged a massive rebound, post the elections, with the WIG20 advancing 16.4% mom in EUR terms. Apart from Turkey, where October was a sell-off, with the ISE30 declining 13.7% mom in EUR terms, there were relatively muted performances everywhere else (BUX +2.1% / PX +0.4% / B...
HEADLINES: • Pepco Group: plunge overdone (stays BUY) • CEZ: PM Fiala says no minority squeeze out, nationalisation in the pipeline NEGATIVE • AROBS Transilvania Software: takeaways from the capital markets day • Polish banks: to face potential extension of credit holidays NEUTRAL • Borouge: 3Q23E results preview (due on 30 October) • Budimex: 3Q23E EBITDA up slightly yoy, despite demanding comparison base (due on 30 October) • Coca-Cola Icecek: 3Q23E earnings preview (due 31 October) • Mig...
HEADLINES: • Turkish food retailers: onwards and upwards (BIM and Migros and Sok Marketler stay BUY) • Asseco Poland: profitability rebound ahead (stays BUY) • Romania macro: NBR on hold, as expected • CD Projekt: 3m Phantom Liberty copies sold in first week, but budget exceeds our assumptions POSITIVE • Huuuge Games: 3Q23 bookings up 5% qoq POSITIVE • Ten Square Games: 3Q23 bookings recover 9% qoq POSITIVE • NEPI Rockcastle: Fortress (24% owner of NRP) may distribute NRP's shares to its shar...
We have a positive view of the Turkish food retailers, as we anticipate that sustained revenue growth, due mainly to the high inflationary effects, and a margin recovery will be the primary drivers in 2H23E and 2024E. Despite the challenges in 1H23, due to high wage costs and the high base of 1H22; we anticipate a sharp margin recovery in 2H23E, thanks to the operating leverage effect and the elimination of one-off expenses, and expect the recovery to continue in 2024E, but at a slower pace. We ...
Food retailers are well-placed to face the upcoming challenges: We believe consumers will experience the effects of the recent economic tightening measures implemented by the government starting more in 4Q23, as wage hikes’ impact erodes, back to school season ends, inflation rises and credit card costs surge. However, given the retailers’ competitive pricing strategies and demand elasticity of grocery spending, they should be able to effectively navigate these challenges. Regulatory risks have...
EME Equity Market – August 2023 Market performance – Turkey the top performer in August, once again. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.2% mom in USD in August. Turkey, yet again, outperformed its peers, with the ISE30 gaining 9.4% mom in EUR terms. The Hungarian BUX index saw a solid performance in August, adding 6.1% mom in EUR terms, while the Romanian BET had a lacklustre month, barely making any gains (0.1% mom in EUR terms). Elsewhere, the index performances were neg...
HEADLINES: • Bank of Georgia: 2Q23 - strong quarter with more capital returns POSITIVE • Photon Energy: cuts FY23E EBITDA guidance by 66%, to EUR 10m NEGATIVE • Dino: 2Q23 EBITDA misses both our and the market's expectations by 3-5% NEUTRAL • Turkcell: 2Q23 results - FY23E guidance upgraded, dividends still uncertain NEUTRAL • BIM: 2Q23 results - in line operationally, but bottom line beat expectations NEUTRAL • Ulker: 2Q23 results - bottom line as expected NEUTRAL • Addiko Bank: solid 2Q23, wit...
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