Duna House: good momentum in all three key markets (stays BUY)
Supportive real estate and mortgage lending dynamics across all three main markets where Duna House (DH) operates should drive earnings growth this year. Italy, the company’s most important market, stands out, with new mortgage intermediation up by 50% and 30% yoy in 1Q25 and 2Q25, respectively. Poland and Hungary could see their highest-ever volumes of new mortgage origination this year. In addition, DH’s cash flow continues to benefit from real estate sales. Management decided against paying out a special dividend from the disposal proceeds earlier this year, and DH is looking for acquisitions. With a sub-0.5x net debt/EBITDA, we estimate that it could spend as much as EUR 50-65m on M&A, without pushing net debt/EBITDA above the internal 3.0x target. We expect the positive underlying market trends to drive earnings higher, amplified by operating leverage. This should support the share price. A well-priced, sizeable acquisition could be an important catalyst for the stock, in our view. We maintain our BUY, raising our 12M price target (PT) to HUF 1,500/share.
WOOD & Company is the leading investment bank in Emerging Europe. Founded in 1991 and head-quartered in Prague, our footprint spans the region and touches investors around the globe.
A pioneer in Emerging Europe, WOOD executed many of the first CEE equity trades and landmark investment banking transactions. Our electronic trading platform was the first in the region, and remains the best. We are continually expanding our relevance and reach in these ever-evolving markets.
Our equity market share reflects our stature: 7% in Warsaw, 20% in Bucharest, 16% in Hungary, 40% in Prague and 5% in Vienna. Our distribution is unparalleled, with the largest salesforce in the region, servicing a uniquely diverse investor base.
We couple local expertise with a truly international perspective. With offices on the ground in the region, and in key financial hubs such as London and Milano, we are never far from our clients and we remain at the forefront of what’s afoot in the CEE emerging and frontier landscape.
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