EME Equity Market – December 2023 Market performance – Poland outperforms in December. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 0.3% mom in EUR terms and 1.9% mom in USD in December. The WIG20 Index continues to perform well in the post-elections environment and reported the strongest performance in our core region, adding 5.9% mom in EUR terms. There was also a strong performance from the Romanian BET and Hungarian BUX indices, adding 4.4% and 4.1% mom, respectively, in EUR terms; while there was a relat...
HEADLINES: • Pepco Group: preliminary FY23 results in line with guidance; cautious optimism, going forward NEUTRAL • Duna House: 3Q23 - doubling down on Italy with the Professione Casa acquisition NEUTRAL • AUGA Group: weak 3Q23, 2024E EBITDA guidance in line with our estimate • AmRest: EUR 800 refinancing agreement POSITIVE • PKO BP: can pay c.PLN 1.3/share 2022 net profit dividend POSITIVE • Poland macro: Donald Tusk nominated as Prime Minister • Fondul Proprietatea: receives binding offer ...
Duna House (DH) has reported its 3Q23 results, which – as expected – showed a slight deceleration in activity in the key Italian financial intermediation segment, due to seasonality and an overall continued softening of the local loan market. The Polish operations are performing ahead of expectations this year, as a function of a rebound in new mortgage origination, driven by the relaxation of the lending criteria and subsidised loans for first-time buyers. Hungary is in line with expectations, ...
EME Equity Market – November 2023 Market performance – Greeks in the lead, in a month with only green across the region. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 5.6% mom in EUR terms and 8.7% mom in USD in November. The Greek ASE Index was the top performer in our region (+6.9% mom), followed by the Polish WIG20 (+5.5% mom) and the Hungarian BUX (+4.0% mom). The Czech PX Index saw the most muted performance, advancing 2.8% mom.
HEADLINES: • Cimsa: sustainable growth, with a global view (BUY - initiation of coverage) • Magyar Telekom: fastest-growing EMEA telecom (stays BUY) • Ten Square Games: improved short-term outlook, but long-term challenges (stays HOLD) • EME Macro/Strategy: CIS plus - top growth in our markets, again • 4iG: 3Q23 review - solid results, with 32% yoy pro-forma EBITDA growth NEUTRAL • Duna House: 3Q23 - doubles down on Italy with the Professione Casa acquisition NEUTRAL • AUGA Group: 3Q23 - wor...
EME Equity Market – September 2023 Market performance – positive developments in Romania and Turkey, declines everywhere else. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 3.7% mom in EUR terms and 6.0% mom in USD in September. Romania took the spotlight, with the BET Index advancing 7.4% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Turkish ISE30 (+4.6% mom). The Polish WIG20 declined the most (-8.7% mom), followed by the Greek ASE, the Hungarian BUX and, finally, the Czech PX (-7.9%, -1.9% and -0.6% mom, respectively).
HEADLINES: • Nuclearelectrica: status quo fairly priced (downgraded to HOLD) • Duna House: doubles down on Italy via long-term cooperation agreement with large real estate broker POSITIVE • Fondul Proprietatea: Franklin Templeton reappointed for one year NEUTRAL • CD Projekt: Phantom Liberty released today, very positive reviews so far POSITIVE • Jeronimo Martins: Ara should reach 20% share in sales in 10 years NEGATIVE • Polish banks: VeloBank - bids approaching final stages • Al Arabia Outdo...
DH’s profit improved thanks to higher transaction (+21% qoq) & loan volumes (+17% qoq) on aquarterly basis. This lifted reported profit to HUF 838 million (-19% yoy; +20% qoq) or HUF 23.6EPS. Clean core profit after tax reached HUF 569 million (-28% YoY, +84% QoQ) or HUF 17 EPS(H1: HUF 25 EPS). Out of that HUF 569 million core profit HUF 337 million is related to financialincome.Earning’s cushions of financial income worked well, Ca.59% of the core profit stemmed fromfinancial income vs. 108% in...
The mortgage and transaction market in Hungary and Poland has turned the corner, and we seem to be past the bottom. In Italy, the high rates continue to weigh on new mortgage origination; however, even as the volume of new mortgage loans continues to drop by around 20-30% yoy, Duna House (DH) is on track to reach materially higher EBITDA in Italy than we were expecting originally in 2023E. After distributing a HUF 108 DPS in June this year (a 26% yield on the share price before the dividend anno...
EME Equity Market – August 2023 Market performance – Turkey the top performer in August, once again. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.2% mom in USD in August. Turkey, yet again, outperformed its peers, with the ISE30 gaining 9.4% mom in EUR terms. The Hungarian BUX index saw a solid performance in August, adding 6.1% mom in EUR terms, while the Romanian BET had a lacklustre month, barely making any gains (0.1% mom in EUR terms). Elsewhere, the index performances were neg...
HEADLINES: • AmRest: 18% EBITDA beat in 2Q23 on easing costs pressure POSITIVE • Duna House: 2Q23 results - reaches EBITDA of EUR 5m in 1H23, despite adverse high-rate backdrop POSITIVE • Patria Bank: solid 2Q23 bottom line, quality could be better NEUTRAL • HELLENiQ Energy: 2Q23 results • AUGA Group: 2Q23 gross profit weaker due to higher revaluation losses of biological assets • 4iG: 2Q23 results review - solid results distorted by business transformation NEUTRAL • Wirtualna Polska: key take...
EME Equity Market – June 2023 Market performance – in the mostly green month of June, Czech Index’s red performance stands out; Turkish gains eclipsed by TRY devaluation. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 3.3% mom in EUR terms and 6.0% mom in USD in June. The Polish WIG20 advanced the most (+11.1% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Hungarian BUX Index (+6.2% mom in EUR terms), the Greek ASE Index (+4.9% mom in EUR terms) and the Romanian BET Index (with a more modest, but positive performance: +2....
In short:Although headline numbers looked decent with profit up by 36% yoy, under the hood there is veryfragile financial numbers from core operation (-40% yoy) - excluding profit from development.Nevertheless, Management confirmed a FY core profit guidance of HUF 1.8bn (EPS: 51) vs HUF0.3 bn (EPS:9) - which needs stronger quarters later to meet.Please note that without financial income (HUF 570 mn) and development profit (of HUF 480 mn)bottom line would have been in deep red (reported profit: H...
Duna House's (DH) entry into Italy (where the defensive CQS product and growing market share of financial intermediaries mitigated the ongoing slowdown of new mortgage originations) drove a positive core EBITDA in 1Q23. On top of this, the 1Q23 results were boosted by handovers of the Forest Hill residential project in Budapest.
EME Equity Market – May 2023 Market performance – in its election month and with talks of a return to investment grade starting to materialise, Greece outperformed, posting a stellar performance. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 2.3% mom in EUR terms, but lost 1.4% mom in USD in May. The Greek ASE Index saw the biggest gains (+12.3% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Hungarian BUX Index (+6.2% mom in EUR terms) and the Turkish ISE 30 Index (+3.4% mom in EUR terms). The remaining geographies finis...
HEADLINES: • Allegro: fear of the dark (stays BUY) • 4iG: 1Q23 results review - solid results distorted by business transformation NEUTRAL • Duna House: 1Q23 - contribution from apartment handovers, expects 1Q23 to mark a bottom in market POSITIVE • EME Macro/Strategy: May update • Huuuge Games: earnings call takeaways NEUTRAL • Transgaz: regulated revenues set at RON 1.6bn, versus RON 1.0bn in 2021 POSITIVE • Cyfrowy Polsat: recommends no dividend from the 2022 net profit NEGATIVE • PCF Grou...
EME Equity Market – April 2023 Market performance – in the black across all geographies, except for Turkey. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 3.4% mom in EUR terms and 4.9% mom in USD in April. The Polish WIG20 Index saw the biggest gains (+11.5% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Hungarian BUX Index (+7.8% mom in EUR terms) and the Greek ASE Index (+2.9% mom in EUR terms). More muted performances were witnessed in the Czech PX Index and Romanian BET Index, both adding 1.7% mom in EUR terms for th...
EME Equity Market – March 2023 Market performance – all geographies down in March. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 7.6% mom in EUR terms and 5.7% mom in USD in March. Among a sea of red, Romania’s BET saw the smallest decline (-2.6% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Czech PX Index (-5.5% mom in EUR terms). The Greek ASE and the Hungarian BUX indices saw similar declines (-7.4% and -7.5% mom ,respectively, in EUR terms), while the worst performer for the month was the Turkish ISE30, down 10.5% mo...
HEADLINES: • Telecom Egypt: 4Q22 results review - adjusted EBITDA up 5% yoy, 3% above the consensus POSITIVE • Duna House: 4Q22 - 50% dividend yield in the next two years? POSITIVE • Turkey macro: inflation falls to 55.2% in February • Romania Investor Day • Electrica: takeaways from our Romania Investor Day • Fondul Proprietatea: takeaways from our Romania Investor Day • Nuclearelectrica: takeaways from our Romania Investor Day • Romgaz: takeaways from our Romania Investor Day • Short New...
Thanks to the acquisition of Italian HGroup (which was consolidated in the results from 1 April 2022), Duna House (DH) generated record strong results in 2022, despite the high rate environment weighing on the affordability and demand for mortgages and apartments in Hungary and Poland. DH’s 2022 results were boosted further by the Forest Hill residential development project in Budapest. Management decided to distribute the proceeds from the residential sales via a dividend – translating into a y...
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