HEADLINES: • Duna House: good momentum in all three key markets (stays BUY) • Tofas: amendments to two agreements with Stellantis NEUTRAL • Cyfrowy Polsat: UKE launches consultations on 900MHz band extension NEUTRAL • Erste Bank: 3Q25E preview (due on 31 October) • CCC: 3Q25E prelims preview – 11% yoy EBITDA drop expected (due on 6 November, TBC) NEUTRAL • PKO BP: 3Q25E preview (due on 6 November) • LPP: 3Q25E results preview – 31% yoy EBITDA growth expected (due on 11 December) NEUTRAL
Supportive real estate and mortgage lending dynamics across all three main markets where Duna House (DH) operates should drive earnings growth this year. Italy, the company’s most important market, stands out, with new mortgage intermediation up by 50% and 30% yoy in 1Q25 and 2Q25, respectively. Poland and Hungary could see their highest-ever volumes of new mortgage origination this year. In addition, DH’s cash flow continues to benefit from real estate sales. Management decided against paying o...
EME Equity Market – September 2025 Romanian BET led in September, while Türkiye and Hungary lagged. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 1.1% in USD terms. The Romanian BET was the top performer, adding 3.6% in EUR terms; followed by the Czech PX (+3.2% mom) and the Polish WIG20 (+1.1% mom) (all in EUR terms); while there was a muted performance from the Greek ASE (+0.6% mom in EUR terms). The Turkish ISE30 and the Hungarian BUX were the worst performing indices in September(...
HEADLINES: • Allegro: 1Q25 results spot on our expectations; lower bound of FY25E guidance increased POSITIVE • Colt CZ Group: 2Q25 results – slightly below the consensus; no changes in FY25E guidance • Mavi: 2Q25 results miss expectations; 2025E guidance lowered NEGATIVE • Echo Investment: 2Q25 – sales could unlock net cash equivalent to one-third of market cap • Auto Partner: 2Q25 EBITDA broadly in line with our and the market's expectations NEUTRAL • Lamda Development: 2Q25 – yield compressio...
EME Equity Market – August 2025 Corrections in Poland and the broader MSCI EM Europe. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 2.3% mom in EUR terms and was flat (0.0%) in USD terms in August. The Hungarian BUX was the top performer, adding 2.2% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Romanian BET (+1.9% mom), the Czech PX (+1.7% mom) and the Greek ASE (+1.4% mom) (all in EUR terms); while there was a muted performance from the Turkish ISE 30 (+0.4% mom in EUR terms). The biggest loser was the Polish WIG ...
Duna House posted record quarterly results in the second quarter as well. The Italian and Polish intermediary segment continued to post strong results while the Hungarian market somewhat slowed down in Q2. Given the improving performance in all three countries, the management reiterated its full year guidance of cleaned core net profit of HUF 2.9- 3.6bn.
Duna House's (DH) 2Q25 was the company's strongest quarter on record, with EBITDA of EUR 4.5m, up 37% yoy. Management has reiterated its guidance for EBITDA of EUR 15-18m and net profit from the core operations of EUR 7-9m. The company is benefiting from a rebound in mortgage and real estate transaction volumes across all its three key markets. In Italy and Poland, the rebound is being spurred mostly by the gradual decline in funding costs; while, in Hungary, volumes seem to be also getting a bo...
HEADLINES: • Duna House: strong 2Q25, guidance reiterated POSITIVE • Benefit Systems: 2Q25 adjusted EBIT up 17% yoy, marginally above our forecast NEUTRAL • Orlen: partner makes significant oil discovery in Norway POSITIVE • Bank Handlowy: may pay out PLN 449m of 2019 net profit as a dividend NEUTRAL • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (18-24 August) • Gentoo Media: 2Q25E financial results preview (due out tomorrow)
EME Equity Market – June 2025 All EME indices in the green in June, with a rebound in Türkiye. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced by 3.2% mom in EUR terms and 6.9% in USD terms. The Turkish ISE 30 Index was the best performer in our region, recouping the losses from the previous month and adding +6.6% mom in EUR terms. The Hungarian BUX and the Polish WIG indices added 3.1% and 2.8% mom in EUR terms, respectively, followed closely by the Romanian BET and the Greek ASE, with both adding 2.0% mom i...
HEADLINES: • LPP: beat vs. 1Q25 consensus expectations, slow start to 2Q, FY25E rollout plans cut to 1,200 stores POSITIVE • DO & CO: strong 4Q FY25 numbers beat the consensus and our expectations POSITIVE • Poland macro: PM Tusk wins vote of confidence, as expected POSITIVE • InPost: English High Court dismisses motion against Yodel POSITIVE • Polish retail: possible retail sales tax extension to e-commerce NEGATIVE • Orange Polska: key takeaways from Parkiet interview with the CEO NEUTRAL • Hu...
Duna House posted solid results in the first quarter today morning. The Italian segment continued to post strong results and the elevated housing market activities in Hungary also contributed to the Group level result. Given the recent pullback in share price, we raise our recommendation to Accumulate while keeping our TP of HUF 1,137 unchanged.
HEADLINES: • Erste Bank Group: smart leverage, strong thesis (stays BUY) • Santander Bank Polska: no such thing as plug and play in M&A (downgraded to HOLD) • EME Macro/Strategy: CIS plus – a good growth juncture, amid global policy shifts • PCF Group: 1Q25 results miss expectations, on lower portion of costs being capitalised NEGATIVE • Echo Investment (HOLD, PT PLN 3.1): 1Q25 – only a handful of deliveries means a weak P&L • Duna House: 1Q25 results– first look positive POSITIVE • DataWalk: ke...
We have revised our forecast for Duna House and incorporated the recent developments over the last year. We set our new 12-m ex-div TP at HUF 1,137, implying 9% upside potential and 14% total return potential, including the next dividend payment. Despite the TR potential exceeding 10% now, we change our recommendation to Neutral due to the lack of short-term catalysts.
EME Equity Market – February 2025 Poland outperforms, again; Türkiye declines. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced by 3.1% in EUR terms and 2.9% mom in USD terms in February. The Polish WIG20 was, once again, the best performer, adding 7.3% mom in February; followed by the Czech PX Index (+6.1% mom); while Greece (+3.8% mom), Hungary (+3.5% mom) and Romania (+3.0% mom) all reported rather similar performances. The Turkish ISE30 was the worst performer, declining 4.5% mom.
Duna House posted strong results for Q4 and cleaned core net results came in higher than the management guidance. Revenues increased by 20% YoY in 2024, reported EBITDA came in 67% higher YoY, while cleaned core EBITDA reached HUF 4.8bn, up by 80% YoY. Net profit came in 18% lower YoY, due to lower financial income on cash deposits and higher tax expenses. Cleaned core net income reached HUF 2.4bn (+35% YoY), above the higher range of HUF 2.3bn guidance. The BoD proposed HUF 43.6 DPS ...
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (24 February-2 March) • National Bank of Greece: 4Q24 results and 2025-27E guidance highlights NEUTRAL • Patria Bank: 4Q24 bottom-line miss due mostly to lower non-interest income NEGATIVE • 4iG: 4Q24 results review – 22% yoy reported EBITDA increase, in line with our estimate; bottom-line miss, on D&A hike NEUTRAL • Sphera Group: 4Q24 soft, as expected; webcast takeaways NEGATIVE • Duna House: 4Q24 – FY results in line, lower DPS, but possible u...
While the 2024 numbers were in line with our forecasts, the stock corrected by over 15% on the day of the release (28 February). The market clearly, in our view, did not appreciate the company's decision to retain the funds from residential sales, and reinvest them into the business via M&A, instead of distributing another outsized dividend.
HEADLINES: • Kruk: detailed 4Q24 results, revealing headwinds in Spain NEGATIVE • Erste Bank: small miss on 4Q24 results, but promises strong ROTE outlook for 2025E and adds another round of share buyback potential NEUTRAL • Richter: soft 4Q24 operating results NEGATIVE • Sphera Group: 4Q24 soft, as expected NEGATIVE • Aquila Part Prod Com S.A.: earnings a small beat, bottom line boosted by negative goodwill and low tax rate POSITIVE • Romgaz: 4Q24 results NEUTRAL • DIGI Communications: 4Q24 pre...
Duna House continued its solid performance in the third quarter of this year as well. Revenues increased by 37% YoY, cleaned core EBITDA was up by 38% YoY and cleaned core net profit came 11% lower YoY given the strong loan intermediation while the Forest Hill apartment sales also contributed to the results.
HEADLINES: • Pepco Group: 2H24 beat on gross margin; lfl recovery at Pepco since September, EUR 775m impairment at Poundland; first DPS of EUR 0.062 POSITIVE • PCF Group: closing strategic options review, with no new financing obtained NEGATIVE • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (2-8 December) • Duna House: a good set of 3Q24 numbers; postcard from WOOD's Winter Wonderland conference POSITIVE • NEPI Rockcastle: buys Silesia City Centre in Katowice for EUR 405m (7.1% yield) POSITIVE • Inter C...
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