WOOD Flash – GEVORKYAN: 4Q24 weaker than expected; new signed contracts and ongoing acquisitions in Italy could boost the 2025E guidance
GEVORKYAN’s 4Q24 results came in lower than expected on operational metrics, primarily due to one-off expenses of EUR 0.7m related to machinery transfers and installations. Adjusted for this, the results would be broadly in line with our estimates. We continue to like GEVORKYAN’s strategic shift away from the automotive industry, as the company secures new contracts in defence and aviation. With the recent completion of its capex cycle, GEVORKYAN should now have sufficient capacity, which could translate into higher operating efficiency and lower capex requirements, a key driver for turning the FCFF positive – a key point of our investment thesis. While the ongoing acquisitions may push capex higher than our 2025E estimates, we believe that this could be offset by stronger revenue and EBITDA growth in the coming years. Over the past year, the share price has remained flat, resulting in GEVORKYAN trading at 8.1x EV/EBITDA on our 2025E estimates, a 25% discount vs. its peers. We remain BUYers of the stock.
WOOD & Company is the leading investment bank in Emerging Europe. Founded in 1991 and head-quartered in Prague, our footprint spans the region and touches investors around the globe.
A pioneer in Emerging Europe, WOOD executed many of the first CEE equity trades and landmark investment banking transactions. Our electronic trading platform was the first in the region, and remains the best. We are continually expanding our relevance and reach in these ever-evolving markets.
Our equity market share reflects our stature: 7% in Warsaw, 20% in Bucharest, 16% in Hungary, 40% in Prague and 5% in Vienna. Our distribution is unparalleled, with the largest salesforce in the region, servicing a uniquely diverse investor base.
We couple local expertise with a truly international perspective. With offices on the ground in the region, and in key financial hubs such as London and Milano, we are never far from our clients and we remain at the forefront of what’s afoot in the CEE emerging and frontier landscape.
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