WOOD Flash - Hidroelectrica: 3Q25 net profit of RON 0.73bn, 14% lower yoy; consensus downgrades possible for 2025E
On Friday 14 November, after the close, Hidroelectrica reported its 3Q25 results. The adjusted EBITDA stood at RON 1.06bn, 10% lower yoy and 3% below our estimate, on the back of higher costs for the acquisition of power than we had pencilled in. The net result reached RON 0.73bn (-14% yoy) and was 5% below our estimates, on a lower net financial result than we had assumed in our model. For 9M25, the net profit reached RON 2.3bn, 34% lower yoy. We estimate net profit of RON 3.2bn for FY25E, while the company has RON 3.0bn in its new 2025E budget. We believe that Hidroelectrica might be able to reach its 2025E net profit target, but note that we might see some consensus downgrades going forwards, as the Bloomberg consensus 2025E net profit is RON 3.7bn. At a 100% payout, assuming our 2025E net profit estimate at RON 3.2bn (ahead of the 2025E budget), the dividend yield would be 6.0%. In our view, the chances of special dividends are low, unless the cash position improves substantially, as we do not believe the company would be willing to leverage in order to pay such dividends. Hidroelectrica is trading at 16.6-12.4x P/Es and 10.9-8.1x EV/EBITDAs, on our 2025-26E estimates. Following the 3Q25 results, we do not see any material upside risks to our forecasts, and reiterate our SELL rating on the stock.
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