Ilirija d.d.: good times by the sea are back (NOT RATED)
After another successful summer season, we see an updated valuation range for Ilirija of EUR 30.9-36.4/share. With the occupancy normalising and pricing strong, the business generated 26% 3Q23 EBITDA growth and an EBITDA margin of 57.5% – significantly better than 2018-19 – despite the drag from higher opex, acutely visible in 1H23. This bodes well, we believe, for 2024E, when we expect another uptick in occupancy, but easing pressure on the costs side; we expect a FY24E EBITDA margin of 30.7%, or+126bps yoy, 9% top-line growth and record net profit of EUR 5.1m (+22% yoy). On our FY24E estimates, the stock currently trades at 6.4x EV/EBITDA and a PER of 12.6x, or discounts of 32% and 18% vs. its peers, respectively. At our midpoint of EUR 33.6/share, the stock would still trade at a 3% discount on EV/EBITDA (on PER, an 8% premium), on our 2024E earnings.
WOOD & Company is the leading investment bank in Emerging Europe. Founded in 1991 and head-quartered in Prague, our footprint spans the region and touches investors around the globe.
A pioneer in Emerging Europe, WOOD executed many of the first CEE equity trades and landmark investment banking transactions. Our electronic trading platform was the first in the region, and remains the best. We are continually expanding our relevance and reach in these ever-evolving markets.
Our equity market share reflects our stature: 7% in Warsaw, 20% in Bucharest, 16% in Hungary, 40% in Prague and 5% in Vienna. Our distribution is unparalleled, with the largest salesforce in the region, servicing a uniquely diverse investor base.
We couple local expertise with a truly international perspective. With offices on the ground in the region, and in key financial hubs such as London and Milano, we are never far from our clients and we remain at the forefront of what’s afoot in the CEE emerging and frontier landscape.
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