HEADLINES: • Ilirija d.d.: ADRs growth pace cools, cost inflation persists (NOT RATED) • Migros: good set of operating results in 3Q24 POSITIVE • Kalekim: strong bottom-line performance in 3Q24 POSITIVE • Ford Otosan: 3Q24 results – quarterly margin improvement tempered by lower export guidance NEUTRAL • Tupras: 3Q24 results – net income beats the consensus; comment on the fire at the Izmit refinery NEUTRAL • Turkish Airlines: 3Q24 – strong cargo and investments offset steep growth in staff cost...
Updating our model following the 9M24 results and rolling over our DCF, we see an updated valuation range of EUR 29.8-36.0/share, or a midpoint of EUR 32.9/share (EUR 36.3/share previously), for Ilirija. Looking at the 9M24 results: 1) we observe somewhat lower than expected price increases yoy in the hotel and camping segments; 2) we see that wage inflation remains a challenge; and 3) occupancy rates, while growing, have yet to converge with the pre COVID-19 levels. These are now reflected in o...
EME Equity Market – May 2024 Turkish equities lead, in the mostly green month of May. The MSCI EM Europe Index rose by 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 1.8% mom in LCU terms in May. The Turkish ISE30 index reported the strongest performance, adding 3.6% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Romanian BET and the Czech PX (+2.7% and 2.1% mom in EUR terms, respectively). The Hungarian BUX index and the Polish WIG20 remained broadly flat (+0.4% and +0.2% mom in EUR terms, respectively); although, in LCU terms,...
HEADLINES: • Jahez: shifting up a gear (upgraded to BUY) • Ilirija d.d.: on track for another solid summer season (NOT RATED) • Ford Otosan: 1Q24 results – operating margin evolution as expected NEUTRAL • Tofas: 1Q24 results – operating performance as expected NEUTRAL • Auto Partner: 1Q24 results in line with the prelims; 34% yoy increase in logistics costs is the major concern NEUTRAL • CA Immo: 1Q24 – rents up 6% yoy lfl, more sales above book, pre-tax FFO I of EUR 26m NEUTRAL • Wirtualna Pols...
Revisiting our model after the FY23 results, which were broadly in line with our November 2023 update, we see an updated valuation range of EUR 33.4-41.5/share for Ilirija, or a 7% increase on the midpoint (to EUR 36.3/share), on a small upgrade in our 2024-26E earnings and modest sector EV/EBITDA multiples expansion. The pricing power in 2023 was positive across the tourism segments: here, we highlight nautical, where the average revenues per berth contract grew by c.15% and double that for tra...
EME Equity Market – November 2023 Market performance – Greeks in the lead, in a month with only green across the region. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 5.6% mom in EUR terms and 8.7% mom in USD in November. The Greek ASE Index was the top performer in our region (+6.9% mom), followed by the Polish WIG20 (+5.5% mom) and the Hungarian BUX (+4.0% mom). The Czech PX Index saw the most muted performance, advancing 2.8% mom.
HEADLINES: • Ilirija d.d.: good times by the sea are back (NOT RATED) • Colt CZ Group SE: 3Q23 miss and Vista bid NEGATIVE • Asseco Poland: 3Q23 review - net profit down 11% yoy, 1% above preliminaries NEUTRAL • Turkey macro: CBT approaching the end of the tightening cycle • Grupa Pracuj: key takeaways from the 3Q23 earnings call POSITIVE • Huuuge Games: takeaways - solid short-term earnings outlook maintained, but more litigation recently NEUTRAL • Motor Oil Hellas: strategy update POSITIVE ...
After another successful summer season, we see an updated valuation range for Ilirija of EUR 30.9-36.4/share. With the occupancy normalising and pricing strong, the business generated 26% 3Q23 EBITDA growth and an EBITDA margin of 57.5% – significantly better than 2018-19 – despite the drag from higher opex, acutely visible in 1H23. This bodes well, we believe, for 2024E, when we expect another uptick in occupancy, but easing pressure on the costs side; we expect a FY24E EBITDA margin of 30.7%, ...
EME Equity Market – November 2022 Market performance – Turkey does it again, breezing past everyone else, once more, in November. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced 11.6% mom in EUR terms and 16.7% mom in USD. The ISE30 index, again, boasted the best performance among our coverage, adding 18.6% mom in EUR terms and 23.9% mom in local currency (lcl) terms. Positive performances were also recorded in the WIG (+14.0% EU /13.0% lcl mom), the BUX (+12.6% EUR/12.0% lcl mom), the BET (+8.4% EUR/8.6% lcl...
HEADLINES: • Sirma Group Holding: healthy leverage position, amidst slowdown in IT (BUY - transfer of coverage) • Ilirija d.d.: summer season yields solid, yet uneven, results (downgraded to HOLD) • US macro: no surprises, but no respite; recession is coming • Raiffeisen Bank International: EUR 1.1bn in 3Q22 net profit, supported hugely by Russian operations POSITIVE • Bank Pekao: 3Q22 net loss, but results show strength and high profitability POSITIVE • ING BSK: 3Q22 results rather neutral a...
Following the key 3Q summer season, and rolling over our DCF model, we have raised our 12M price target (PT) for Ilirija by 3%, to HRK 216/share and downgraded our rating to HOLD, after the stock has gained c.7% since our previous update, in August. The business, as a whole, has rebounded fully from the pandemic, albeit unevenly. We highlight Ilirija’s success in upscaling its Camping segment to generate materially higher ADRs. This is offset by the low-growth Nautical and Real Estate segments (...
EME Equity Market – August 2022 Market performance – Turkey the biggest winner, in a predominantly bad month. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined 1.2% mom in EUR and 2.8% mom in USD terms. Turkey’s ISE index outperformed all other indices, adding 24.9% mom in EUR terms and 25.1% in local currency terms. Hungary’s benchmark, the BUX Index, added 1.1% mom and 0.2% mom in EUR and HUF terms, respectively. Greece’s ASE Index had a muted performance and added only 0.6% mom. All the other indices across ...
HEADLINES: • Ilirija d.d.: stronger prices drive upgrade (upgraded to BUY) • OTP Bank: 2Q22 - quite solid and promising, if not for recession and credit risk outlook for 2022E NEUTRAL • Turkish Airlines: 2Q22 - strong results, high cargo yields remain a key driver, beat on pricing POSITIVE • Petkim: 2Q22 results - big net income beat • Brisa: 2Q22 - earnings miss on input cost pressure NEGATIVE • Anadolu Efes: strong beat in the 2Q22 results POSITIVE • GTC: buys a minority stake in a project ...
Following the 2Q22 numbers, we make small upwards adjustments to our model again and raise our 12M price target (PT) by c.9%, to HRK 209. Accordingly, we also upgrade our recommendation from Hold to BUY, with potential upside of 17%. Ilirija’s 2Q numbers provide an even clearer picture of how management is positioning the business, ahead of the peak summer season; as we observed in 1Q22, the message, we believe, is stronger pricing. Going forward, we maintain that Ilirija’s strong balance sheet ...
EME Equity Market – December 2021 Market performance – despite most markets being in the black, MSCI EM Europe declined by 1.7%. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 1.7% in EUR terms and 1.0% in USD terms. The Czech PX Index continued with its solid performance and advanced by 7.7% in EUR terms and 5.1% in CZK. The Romanian BET Index added 7.1% in both EUR and local currency. Turkish equities, represented by the ISE30 Index, grew 5.3% in EUR and 4.2% in TRY. Poland’s WIG20 Index gained 4.8% in ...
HEADLINES: • Kazatomprom: a melt-up in uranium (stays BUY) • AD Plastik: nerves of steel (stays HOLD) • Ilirija d.d.: well on track to full recovery (stays BUY) • Russia macro: CBR raises the policy rate by 100bp to 8.50% • PGNiG: the Energy Regulatory Office approves new gas tariffs for PGNiG • Jeronimo Martins: EUR 6m fine for Pingo Doce NEGATIVE • Famur: signs PLN 144m of contracts with Polskie Maszyny Group POSITIVE • Cyfrowy Polsat: to present its strategy update today at 13.00 CET NEU...
We have rolled over our DCF model and raised our 12M price target (PT) for Ilirija by 30%, to HRK 231; despite the stock having appreciated by 31% since our initiation, last autumn, we maintain our BUY recommendation. Stable revenues from the marina business and the shopping centre in particular insulated Ilirija’s earnings from the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic and, following a strong summer season, the business is on track next year to beat its record 2019 earnings, with strong pricing in mos...
HEADLINES: • Wizz Air: the best-positioned carrier in Europe (upgraded to BUY) • Sirma Group Holding: small player, but growing quickly (BUY - initiation of coverage) • EME Macro/Strategy: a closer look at the implications of lockdowns • LPP: preliminary 3Q EBIT down 13% yoy, but still 9% ahead of PAP consensus POSITIVE • Ilirija d.d.: 3Q20 a small beat on better-than-expected hotel segment POSITIVE • Kazatomprom: 3Q operating results NEUTRAL • Warsaw Stock Exchange: Allegro's IPO boosts mont...
EME Equity Market – October 2020 Market performance – all country benchmarks in the red. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost one-tenth of its value in EUR terms, while it fell 10.6% in USD terms. The worst performer was the Polish benchmark, the WIG20 Index (-13.2% in EUR terms and 11.5% in local currency (LC)); followed by the Turkish ISE30 Index (-11.9% in EUR terms and 4.8% in LC terms). Russia’s equities, represented by the MOEX Index, fell 9% in EUR terms and 7.4% in local currency terms; while ...
In its nine-month report, Ilirija noted that tightening travel restrictions affected its peak summer season from mid-August negatively, so were a bigger headwind than we expected, especially in the camping segment. This is similar to its peers, which have reported already, so it was expected, we believe. More importantly, in our view, is that the nautical and real estate segments proved quite resilient to COVID-19, key factors beneath the stability of its earnings both this year and going forwar...
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Report is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.