Ilirija d.d.: on track for another solid summer season (NOT RATED)

Revisiting our model after the FY23 results, which were broadly in line with our November 2023 update, we see an updated valuation range of EUR 33.4-41.5/share for Ilirija, or a 7% increase on the midpoint (to EUR 36.3/share), on a small upgrade in our 2024-26E earnings and modest sector EV/EBITDA multiples expansion. The pricing power in 2023 was positive across the tourism segments: here, we highlight nautical, where the average revenues per berth contract grew by c.15% and double that for transit berths; while the occupancy at the hotels (36.9%, or +549bps yoy) and camps (60.9%, or +408bps) grew strongly and, we believe, to sustainable levels, going forward. Here, we also note that the 4Q23 revenues represented 9.4% of the FY total, similar to 2022, vs. c.8% in 2018-19; this underlines, again, the trend towards longer summer seasons for the business. On our FY24E estimates, the stock is trading currently at 6.4x EV/EBITDA and a PER of 12.2x, or discounts of 39% and 27% vs. its peers, respectively. At our midpoint of EUR 36.3/share, the stock would trade at a 20% discount on EV/EBITDA (on the PER, a 4% discount), on our 2024E earnings.